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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Jean Silva vs. Drew Dober

UFC 7-1-0 vs. 15-11-0 (1 NC)

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
7-1-0
UFC record
15-11-0 (1 NC)
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
29
AgeΔ 9 yrs
38
5'7"
HeightΔ 1"
5'8"
69"
ReachΔ 1"
70"
Orthodox5-0 vs southpaws
Stance
Southpaw9-6 vs orthodox fighters
1.8
Layoff (months)Δ 6.2 mo
8
WWLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
WWLLL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Jean Silva has owned southpaws — 5-0 in the UFC (2-1 vs everyone else), and Drew Dober is a southpaw.
Jean Silva carries real power — 1.23 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Featherweight norm.
Drew Dober carries real power — 0.68 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Jean Silva

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 81
Tier 3 — regional circuit 102

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.57 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 16 finish wins over 21 documented bouts

In the UFC: 5-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.2 wins over .500

Drew Dober

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1611
Tier 3 — regional circuit 134

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.97 · 16 tier-1/2 wins · 22 finish wins over 45 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.0 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3134.29/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
9944.48/min · norm 3.43
3064.20/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
9604.33/min · norm 3.37
52.7%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
41.0%norm 43.7%
54.8%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
53.1%norm 56.3%
61.23/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
100.68/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Jean Silva

Distance 88.4% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 8.1% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 3.5% (norm 6.4%)

Drew Dober

Distance 87.8% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 7.0% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 5.2% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Jean Silva

Head 77.6% (norm 77.5%) · Body 18.2% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 4.2% (norm 7.9%)

Drew Dober

Head 79.3% (norm 78.1%) · Body 13.5% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.2% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Silva L/AAccFeatherweight med Dober L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 261 / 525 49.7% 40.7% 790 / 2128 37.1% 38.4%
In the clinch 36 / 48 75.0% 70.5% 111 / 170 65.3% 67.5%
On the ground 16 / 21 too few to rate 69.1% 93 / 125 74.4% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 205 / 461 44.5% 37.2% 628 / 1922 32.7% 35.3%
To the body 85 / 108 78.7% 68.4% 225 / 326 69.0% 69.2%
To the legs 23 / 25 92.0% 80.7% 141 / 175 80.6% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Silva L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Dober L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 244 / 574 42.5% 39.3% 771 / 1793 43.0% 38.9%
In the clinch 19 / 32 59.4% 70.3% 87 / 121 71.9% 68.6%
On the ground 43 / 71 60.6% 69.5% 102 / 132 77.3% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 172 / 491 35.0% 35.9% 681 / 1668 40.8% 35.2%
To the body 57 / 98 58.2% 68.1% 197 / 279 70.6% 68.2%
To the legs 77 / 88 87.5% 81.1% 82 / 99 82.8% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
666.7% acc · 1.23/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
917.0% acc · 0.61/15 · norm 1.34
2678.8% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
3958.2% def · norm 63.2%
2:544.0% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
29:1913.2% of cage time · norm 19.0%
7:291:32 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
49:013:18 per 15 · norm 2:50
40.82/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
10.07/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Dober has more cage time on record.