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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Javier Vazquez vs. Joe Stevenson

UFC 1-0-0 vs. 8-8-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
1-0-0
UFC record
8-8-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
49
AgeΔ 5 yrs
44
5'7"
HeightΔ 0"
5'7"
69"
ReachΔ 1"
70"
Southpaw1-0 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox5-3 vs southpaws
184.3
Layoff (months)Δ 0 mo
184.3
W
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Joe Stevenson is a submission threat — 2.19 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.48 Lightweight norm.
Javier Vazquez hunts takedowns — 3.00 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.
Javier Vazquez is a submission threat — 1.00 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.44 Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Javier Vazquez

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 10
Tier 3 — regional circuit 135

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.72 · 1 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 19 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.0 wins over .500

Joe Stevenson

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 88
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 01
Tier 3 — regional circuit 247

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.66 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 21 finish wins over 48 documented bouts

In the UFC: 6-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.2 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

624.13/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
3071.87/min · norm 3.43
271.80/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
4322.63/min · norm 3.37
38.5%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
42.0%norm 43.7%
64.5%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
60.4%norm 56.3%
00.00/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
10.09/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Javier Vazquez

Distance 93.8% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 1.9% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 4.3% (norm 6.4%)

Joe Stevenson

Distance 65.9% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 7.4% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 26.7% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Javier Vazquez

Head 93.8% (norm 77.5%) · Body 5.6% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 0.6% (norm 7.9%)

Joe Stevenson

Head 84.7% (norm 78.1%) · Body 9.2% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 6.2% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Vazquez L/AAccFeatherweight med Stevenson L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 56 / 151 37.1% 40.7% 142 / 482 29.5% 38.4%
In the clinch 1 / 3 too few to rate 70.5% 35 / 54 64.8% 67.5%
On the ground 5 / 7 too few to rate 69.1% 130 / 195 66.7% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 54 / 151 35.8% 37.2% 225 / 619 36.3% 35.3%
To the body 8 / 9 too few to rate 68.4% 44 / 67 65.7% 69.2%
To the legs 0 / 1 too few to rate 80.7% 38 / 45 84.4% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Vazquez L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Stevenson L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 27 / 74 36.5% 39.3% 304 / 865 35.1% 38.9%
In the clinch 0 / 2 too few to rate 70.3% 26 / 55 47.3% 68.6%
On the ground 0 / 0 too few to rate 69.5% 102 / 170 60.0% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 18 / 62 29.0% 35.9% 348 / 981 35.5% 35.2%
To the body 6 / 10 too few to rate 68.1% 63 / 83 75.9% 68.2%
To the legs 3 / 4 too few to rate 81.1% 21 / 26 80.8% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
360.0% acc · 3.00/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
3146.3% acc · 2.83/15 · norm 1.34
3100.0% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
1641.0% def · norm 63.2%
4:1328.1% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
52:2231.8% of cage time · norm 19.0%
1:211:21 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
46:334:14 per 15 · norm 2:50
11.00/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
242.19/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Stevenson has more cage time on record.