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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Jacobe Smith vs. Niko Price

UFC 5-0-0 vs. 9-11-0 (2 NC)

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
5-0-0
UFC record
9-11-0 (2 NC)
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
30
AgeΔ 7 yrs
37
5'10"
HeightΔ 2"
6'0"
72"
ReachΔ 4"
76"
Southpaw3-0 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox1-4 vs southpaws
0.1
Layoff (months)Δ 0.7 mo
0.8
WWWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
WLLLL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Niko Price struggles with southpaws — 1-4 in the UFC (8-7 vs everyone else), and Jacobe Smith is a southpaw.
Jacobe Smith hunts takedowns — 4.02 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.31 Welterweight norm.
Jacobe Smith owns the mat — in control 52% of cage time, vs a 18% Welterweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Jacobe Smith

Full career not yet synced for Jacobe Smith — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.0 wins over .500

Niko Price

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 811
Tier 3 — regional circuit 80

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.68 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 29 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-10 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.9 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1424.76/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
9115.29/min · norm 3.17
682.28/min · norm 3.08
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
9495.51/min · norm 3.08
62.6%norm 44.75%
Striking accuracy
44.0%norm 44.75%
51.1%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
48.4%norm 55.25%
10.50/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
50.44/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Jacobe Smith

Distance 65.2% (norm 80.7%) · Clinch 1.3% (norm 9.6%) · Ground 33.5% (norm 8.1%)

Niko Price

Distance 83.5% (norm 80.7%) · Clinch 7.7% (norm 9.6%) · Ground 8.8% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Jacobe Smith

Head 71.4% (norm 78.3%) · Body 15.4% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 13.2% (norm 8.0%)

Niko Price

Head 77.3% (norm 78.3%) · Body 11.4% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 11.3% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Smith L/AAccWelterweight med Price L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 80 / 148 54.1% 38.5% 682 / 1728 39.5% 38.5%
In the clinch 3 / 3 too few to rate 67.8% 94 / 159 59.1% 67.8%
On the ground 59 / 76 77.6% 67.0% 135 / 182 74.2% 67.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 96 / 162 59.3% 36.4% 572 / 1600 35.8% 36.4%
To the body 28 / 35 80.0% 70.7% 145 / 236 61.4% 70.7%
To the legs 18 / 30 60.0% 83.1% 194 / 233 83.3% 83.1%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 180 fighters · Welterweight: 180 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Smith L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Price L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 59 / 123 48.0% 39.1% 748 / 1537 48.7% 39.1%
In the clinch 5 / 8 too few to rate 68.9% 81 / 108 75.0% 68.9%
On the ground 4 / 8 too few to rate 68.0% 120 / 193 62.2% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 34 / 94 36.2% 35.6% 649 / 1481 43.8% 35.6%
To the body 17 / 25 68.0% 69.6% 163 / 208 78.4% 69.6%
To the legs 17 / 20 too few to rate 82.1% 137 / 149 91.9% 82.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
888.9% acc · 4.02/15 · norm 1.31
Takedowns landed
1230.0% acc · 1.04/15 · norm 1.31
4100.0% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
2352.3% def · norm 63.9%
15:3752.4% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
26:5615.6% of cage time · norm 18.5%
0:040:02 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control lower is better
36:083:08 per 15 · norm 3:15
10.50/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
70.61/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Price has more cage time on record.