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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Jacobe Smith vs. Josiah Harrell

UFC 5-0-0 vs. 0-2-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
5-0-0
UFC record
0-2-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
30
AgeΔ 3 yrs
27
5'10"
HeightΔ 3"
5'7"
72"
ReachΔ 4"
68"
Southpaw1-0 vs southpaws
Stance
Southpaw0-1 vs southpaws
0.1
Layoff (months)Δ 1.2 mo
1.3
WWWWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Josiah Harrell hunts takedowns — 4.14 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.
Jacobe Smith hunts takedowns — 4.02 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.31 Welterweight norm.
Jacobe Smith owns the mat — in control 52% of cage time, vs a 18% Welterweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Jacobe Smith

Full career not yet synced for Jacobe Smith — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.0 wins over .500

Josiah Harrell

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 02
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 20
Tier 3 — regional circuit 90

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.13 · 2 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 13 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.0 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1424.76/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
162.21/min · norm 3.43
682.28/min · norm 3.08
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
588.00/min · norm 3.37
62.6%norm 44.75%
Striking accuracy
45.7%norm 43.7%
51.1%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
30.1%norm 56.3%
10.50/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Jacobe Smith

Distance 65.2% (norm 80.7%) · Clinch 1.3% (norm 9.6%) · Ground 33.5% (norm 8.1%)

Josiah Harrell

Distance 100.0% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 0.0% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 0.0% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Jacobe Smith

Head 71.4% (norm 78.3%) · Body 15.4% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 13.2% (norm 8.0%)

Josiah Harrell

Head 57.1% (norm 78.1%) · Body 20.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 22.9% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Smith L/AAccWelterweight med Harrell L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 80 / 148 54.1% 38.5% 16 / 35 45.7% 38.4%
In the clinch 3 / 3 too few to rate 67.8% 0 / 0 too few to rate 67.5%
On the ground 59 / 76 77.6% 67.0% 0 / 0 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 96 / 162 59.3% 36.4% 6 / 20 too few to rate 35.3%
To the body 28 / 35 80.0% 70.7% 5 / 7 too few to rate 69.2%
To the legs 18 / 30 60.0% 83.1% 5 / 8 too few to rate 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 180 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Smith L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Harrell L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 59 / 123 48.0% 39.1% 44 / 69 63.8% 38.9%
In the clinch 5 / 8 too few to rate 68.9% 1 / 1 too few to rate 68.6%
On the ground 4 / 8 too few to rate 68.0% 13 / 13 too few to rate 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 34 / 94 36.2% 35.6% 29 / 51 56.9% 35.2%
To the body 17 / 25 68.0% 69.6% 14 / 15 too few to rate 68.2%
To the legs 17 / 20 too few to rate 82.1% 15 / 17 too few to rate 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
888.9% acc · 4.02/15 · norm 1.31
Takedowns landed
240.0% acc · 4.14/15 · norm 1.34
4100.0% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
00.0% def · norm 63.2%
15:3752.4% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
0:347.8% of cage time · norm 19.0%
0:040:02 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control lower is better
0:260:53 per 15 · norm 2:50
10.50/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Smith has more cage time on record.