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UFC simulation vs. the market Fight

Gustavo Lopez vs. Merab Dvalishvili

UFC 1-2-1 vs. 14-4-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
1-2-1
UFC record
14-4-0
Bantamweight
Division (benchmark)
Bantamweight
37
AgeΔ 2 yrs
35
5'5"
HeightΔ 1"
5'6"
67"
ReachΔ 1"
68"
Orthodox1-2-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox9-2 vs orthodox fighters
61.6
Layoff (months)Δ 61.2 mo
0.4
DLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Merab Dvalishvili hunts takedowns — 5.74 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.12 Bantamweight norm.
Gustavo Lopez is a submission threat — 0.69 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Bantamweight norm.
Merab Dvalishvili owns the mat — in control 34% of cage time, vs a 18% Bantamweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Gustavo Lopez

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 22
Tier 3 — regional circuit 148

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.36 · 2 tier-1/2 wins · 15 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.8 wins over .500

Merab Dvalishvili

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 143
Tier 3 — regional circuit 72

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.37 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 5 finish wins over 26 documented bouts

In the UFC: 12-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.1 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1072.48/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
14534.48/min · norm 3.52
1673.87/min · norm 3.58
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
9662.98/min · norm 3.58
40.2%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
41.0%norm 43.5%
57.1%norm 56.6%
Striking defense
52.9%norm 56.6%
00.00/15 · norm 0.29
Knockdowns
10.05/15 · norm 0.29

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Gustavo Lopez

Distance 82.7% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 10.2% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 7.1% (norm 6.4%)

Merab Dvalishvili

Distance 79.4% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 8.5% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 12.2% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Gustavo Lopez

Head 79.7% (norm 77.5%) · Body 12.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 8.3% (norm 8.4%)

Merab Dvalishvili

Head 81.7% (norm 77.5%) · Body 9.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 8.4% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Lopez L/AAccBantamweight med Dvalishvili L/AAccBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 83 / 220 37.7% 39.2% 963 / 2813 34.2% 39.2%
In the clinch 11 / 27 40.7% 69.0% 206 / 300 68.7% 69.0%
On the ground 13 / 19 too few to rate 70.2% 284 / 431 65.9% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 68 / 212 32.1% 35.3% 980 / 2895 33.9% 35.3%
To the body 24 / 32 75.0% 66.9% 237 / 352 67.3% 66.9%
To the legs 15 / 22 too few to rate 79.2% 236 / 297 79.5% 79.2%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Bantamweight: 121 fighters · Bantamweight: 121 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Lopez L/AOpp accBantamweight med vs Dvalishvili L/AOpp accBantamweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 111 / 304 36.5% 39.4% 816 / 1837 44.4% 39.4%
In the clinch 7 / 11 too few to rate 70.6% 125 / 185 67.6% 70.6%
On the ground 49 / 74 66.2% 72.1% 25 / 29 86.2% 72.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 110 / 311 35.4% 34.9% 588 / 1565 37.6% 34.9%
To the body 36 / 55 65.5% 66.1% 243 / 328 74.1% 66.1%
To the legs 21 / 23 too few to rate 78.8% 135 / 158 85.4% 78.8%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
541.7% acc · 1.74/15 · norm 1.12
Takedowns landed
12431.3% acc · 5.74/15 · norm 1.12
631.6% def · norm 65.7%
Takedowns stopped
3976.5% def · norm 65.7%
3:117.4% of cage time · norm 17.8%
Control time
109:1933.7% of cage time · norm 17.8%
9:243:15 per 15 · norm 2:24
Time under control lower is better
16:080:44 per 15 · norm 2:24
20.69/15 · norm 0.28
Submission attempts
70.32/15 · norm 0.28

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Dvalishvili has more cage time on record.