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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Drew Dober vs. Jean Silva

UFC 15-11-0 (1 NC) vs. 7-1-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
15-11-0 (1 NC)
UFC record
7-1-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
38
AgeΔ 9 yrs
29
5'8"
HeightΔ 1"
5'7"
70"
ReachΔ 1"
69"
Southpaw9-6 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox5-0 vs southpaws
8
Layoff (months)Δ 6.3 mo
1.7
WWLLL
Last 5 (newest first)
WWLWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Jean Silva has owned southpaws — 5-0 in the UFC (2-1 vs everyone else), and Drew Dober is a southpaw.
Jean Silva carries real power — 1.23 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Featherweight norm.
Drew Dober carries real power — 0.68 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Drew Dober

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1611
Tier 3 — regional circuit 134

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.97 · 16 tier-1/2 wins · 22 finish wins over 45 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.0 wins over .500

Jean Silva

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 81
Tier 3 — regional circuit 102

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.57 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 16 finish wins over 21 documented bouts

In the UFC: 5-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.2 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

9944.48/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
3134.29/min · norm 3.52
9604.33/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
3064.20/min · norm 3.54
41.0%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
52.7%norm 44.8%
53.1%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
54.8%norm 54.8%
100.68/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
61.23/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Drew Dober

Distance 87.8% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 7.0% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 5.2% (norm 8.0%)

Jean Silva

Distance 88.4% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 8.1% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 3.5% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Drew Dober

Head 79.3% (norm 78.1%) · Body 13.5% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.2% (norm 8.0%)

Jean Silva

Head 77.6% (norm 77.5%) · Body 18.2% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 4.2% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Dober L/AAccLightweight med Silva L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 790 / 2128 37.1% 38.4% 261 / 525 49.7% 40.7%
In the clinch 111 / 170 65.3% 67.5% 36 / 48 75.0% 70.5%
On the ground 93 / 125 74.4% 69.1% 16 / 21 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 628 / 1922 32.7% 35.3% 205 / 461 44.5% 37.2%
To the body 225 / 326 69.0% 69.2% 85 / 108 78.7% 68.4%
To the legs 141 / 175 80.6% 81.8% 23 / 25 92.0% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Dober L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Silva L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 771 / 1793 43.0% 38.9% 244 / 574 42.5% 39.3%
In the clinch 87 / 121 71.9% 68.6% 19 / 32 59.4% 70.3%
On the ground 102 / 132 77.3% 68.2% 43 / 71 60.6% 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 681 / 1668 40.8% 35.2% 172 / 491 35.0% 35.9%
To the body 197 / 279 70.6% 68.2% 57 / 98 58.2% 68.1%
To the legs 82 / 99 82.8% 81.5% 77 / 88 87.5% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
917.0% acc · 0.61/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
666.7% acc · 1.23/15 · norm 1.17
3958.2% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
2678.8% def · norm 61.5%
29:1913.2% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
2:544.0% of cage time · norm 16.5%
49:013:18 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
7:291:32 per 15 · norm 3:11
10.07/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
40.82/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Dober has more cage time on record.