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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Donte Johnson vs. Cesar Almeida

UFC 3-0-0 vs. 3-3-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
3-0-0
UFC record
3-3-0
Middleweight
Division (benchmark)
Middleweight
27
AgeΔ 11 yrs
38
5'8"
HeightΔ 5"
6'1"
74"
ReachΔ 0"
74"
Southpaw2-0 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox1-2 vs southpaws
2.7
Layoff (months)Δ 1.1 mo
3.8
WWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWWL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Donte Johnson carries real power — 0.65 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.32 Middleweight norm.
Cesar Almeida rarely shoots — 0.25 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.35 Middleweight norm.
Donte Johnson owns the mat — in control 29% of cage time, vs a 19% Middleweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Donte Johnson

Full career not yet synced for Donte Johnson — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.7 wins over .500

Cesar Almeida

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 43
Tier 3 — regional circuit 30

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.18 · 4 tier-1/2 wins · 5 finish wins over 10 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

662.86/min · norm 3.23
Sig. strikes landed
2133.48/min · norm 3.23
421.82/min · norm 3.20
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
1422.32/min · norm 3.20
42.6%norm 47.4%
Striking accuracy
60.0%norm 47.4%
63.2%norm 53.8%
Striking defense
43.2%norm 53.8%
10.65/15 · norm 0.32
Knockdowns
10.25/15 · norm 0.32

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Donte Johnson

Distance 83.9% (norm 79.5%) · Clinch 5.2% (norm 9.0%) · Ground 11.0% (norm 10.0%)

Cesar Almeida

Distance 81.7% (norm 79.5%) · Clinch 9.0% (norm 9.0%) · Ground 9.3% (norm 10.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Donte Johnson

Head 89.0% (norm 78.0%) · Body 5.8% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 5.2% (norm 8.4%)

Cesar Almeida

Head 51.3% (norm 78.0%) · Body 29.9% (norm 13.4%) · Legs 18.9% (norm 8.4%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Johnson L/AAccMiddleweight med Almeida L/AAccMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 47 / 130 36.2% 40.5% 164 / 290 56.6% 40.5%
In the clinch 6 / 8 too few to rate 70.7% 30 / 32 93.8% 70.7%
On the ground 13 / 17 too few to rate 69.4% 19 / 33 57.6% 69.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 53 / 138 38.4% 38.8% 84 / 182 46.2% 38.8%
To the body 5 / 9 too few to rate 71.6% 76 / 106 71.7% 71.6%
To the legs 8 / 8 too few to rate 83.3% 53 / 67 79.1% 83.3%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Middleweight: 178 fighters · Middleweight: 178 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Johnson L/AOpp accMiddleweight med vs Almeida L/AOpp accMiddleweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 39 / 108 36.1% 39.5% 118 / 219 53.9% 39.5%
In the clinch 3 / 4 too few to rate 70.4% 6 / 9 too few to rate 70.4%
On the ground 0 / 2 too few to rate 69.0% 18 / 22 too few to rate 69.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 23 / 93 24.7% 37.7% 90 / 193 46.6% 37.7%
To the body 7 / 9 too few to rate 71.3% 29 / 34 85.3% 71.3%
To the legs 12 / 12 too few to rate 82.0% 23 / 23 too few to rate 82.0%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
3100.0% acc · 1.95/15 · norm 1.35
Takedowns landed
133.3% acc · 0.25/15 · norm 1.35
1076.9% def · norm 63.3%
Takedowns stopped
1648.5% def · norm 63.3%
6:3628.6% of cage time · norm 19.4%
Control time
3:325.8% of cage time · norm 19.4%
6:284:12 per 15 · norm 2:58
Time under control lower is better
30:537:34 per 15 · norm 2:58
10.65/15 · norm 0.45
Submission attempts
10.25/15 · norm 0.45

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Almeida has more cage time on record.