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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Diego Sanchez vs. Jim Miller

UFC 19-13-0 vs. 28-18-0 (1 NC)

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
19-13-0
UFC record
28-18-0 (1 NC)
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
44
AgeΔ 1 yrs
43
5'10"
HeightΔ 2"
5'8"
72"
ReachΔ 1"
71"
Southpaw5-1 vs southpaws
Stance
Southpaw5-8 vs southpaws
73.3
Layoff (months)Δ 67.4 mo
5.9
LWLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
WLWLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Diego Sanchez has owned southpaws — 5-1 in the UFC (14-12 vs everyone else), and Jim Miller is a southpaw.
Jim Miller is a submission threat — 1.72 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.48 Lightweight norm.
Diego Sanchez is a submission threat — 0.68 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.44 Welterweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Diego Sanchez

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1913
Tier 3 — regional circuit 111

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.1 · 19 tier-1/2 wins · 16 finish wins over 44 documented bouts

In the UFC: 10-12 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.6 wins over .500

Jim Miller

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 2818
Tier 3 — regional circuit 111

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.25 · 28 tier-1/2 wins · 29 finish wins over 59 documented bouts

In the UFC: 16-17 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.4 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

10582.66/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
13222.92/min · norm 3.43
12383.12/min · norm 3.08
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
15543.43/min · norm 3.37
37.3%norm 44.75%
Striking accuracy
42.1%norm 43.7%
56.5%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
56.7%norm 56.3%
60.23/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
60.20/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Diego Sanchez

Distance 74.5% (norm 80.7%) · Clinch 6.6% (norm 9.6%) · Ground 18.9% (norm 8.1%)

Jim Miller

Distance 81.2% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 9.7% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 9.1% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Diego Sanchez

Head 83.1% (norm 78.3%) · Body 13.3% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 3.5% (norm 8.0%)

Jim Miller

Head 77.5% (norm 78.1%) · Body 11.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 10.6% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Sanchez L/AAccWelterweight med Miller L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 612 / 2110 29.0% 38.5% 945 / 2547 37.1% 38.4%
In the clinch 112 / 188 59.6% 67.8% 194 / 303 64.0% 67.5%
On the ground 334 / 535 62.4% 67.0% 183 / 287 63.8% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 730 / 2355 31.0% 36.4% 775 / 2431 31.9% 35.3%
To the body 250 / 378 66.1% 70.7% 266 / 372 71.5% 69.2%
To the legs 78 / 100 78.0% 83.1% 281 / 334 84.1% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 180 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Sanchez L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Miller L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 862 / 2235 38.6% 39.1% 1185 / 3031 39.1% 38.9%
In the clinch 198 / 303 65.3% 68.9% 174 / 255 68.2% 68.6%
On the ground 178 / 309 57.6% 68.0% 195 / 307 63.5% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 954 / 2483 38.4% 35.6% 1055 / 2895 36.4% 35.2%
To the body 178 / 236 75.4% 69.6% 351 / 496 70.8% 68.2%
To the legs 106 / 128 82.8% 82.1% 148 / 202 73.3% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
3621.7% acc · 1.36/15 · norm 1.31
Takedowns landed
4545.0% acc · 1.49/15 · norm 1.34
3347.1% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
5047.6% def · norm 63.2%
99:2225.0% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
94:1220.8% of cage time · norm 19.0%
62:342:21 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control lower is better
121:424:01 per 15 · norm 2:50
180.68/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
521.72/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Miller has more cage time on record.