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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Diego Ferreira vs. Kyle Nelson

UFC 11-7-0 vs. 5-7-1

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
11-7-0
UFC record
5-7-1
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
41
AgeΔ 6 yrs
35
5'9"
HeightΔ 2"
5'11"
74"
ReachΔ 3"
71"
Orthodox1-1 vs switch-stance fighters
Stance
Switch3-5-1 vs orthodox fighters
2.9
Layoff (months)Δ 2.3 mo
0.6
WLLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Diego Ferreira outworks the Lightweight division — 4.95 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.43 norm.
Kyle Nelson absorbs 4.64 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.54 Featherweight norm — hittable.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Diego Ferreira

Full career not yet synced for Diego Ferreira — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 8-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.0 wins over .500

Kyle Nelson

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 56
Tier 3 — regional circuit 121

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.79 · 5 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 25 documented bouts

In the UFC: 4-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.8 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

8924.95/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
4183.63/min · norm 3.52
6443.58/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
5354.64/min · norm 3.54
40.8%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
46.0%norm 44.8%
57.2%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
53.8%norm 54.8%
30.25/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
10.13/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Diego Ferreira

Distance 88.4% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 3.8% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 7.8% (norm 8.0%)

Kyle Nelson

Distance 88.3% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 9.5% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 2.2% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Diego Ferreira

Head 81.0% (norm 78.1%) · Body 15.6% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 3.4% (norm 8.0%)

Kyle Nelson

Head 74.0% (norm 77.5%) · Body 16.6% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 9.4% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Ferreira L/AAccLightweight med Nelson L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 703 / 1934 36.3% 38.4% 351 / 803 43.7% 40.7%
In the clinch 58 / 83 69.9% 67.5% 54 / 86 62.8% 70.5%
On the ground 131 / 170 77.1% 69.1% 13 / 20 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 642 / 1771 36.3% 35.3% 235 / 673 34.9% 37.2%
To the body 189 / 341 55.4% 69.2% 109 / 151 72.2% 68.4%
To the legs 61 / 75 81.3% 81.8% 74 / 85 87.1% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Ferreira L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Nelson L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 491 / 1264 38.8% 38.9% 387 / 930 41.6% 39.3%
In the clinch 45 / 67 67.2% 68.6% 43 / 60 71.7% 70.3%
On the ground 108 / 172 62.8% 68.2% 105 / 168 62.5% 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 463 / 1236 37.5% 35.2% 308 / 881 35.0% 35.9%
To the body 122 / 195 62.6% 68.2% 126 / 158 79.7% 68.1%
To the legs 59 / 72 81.9% 81.5% 101 / 119 84.9% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1333.3% acc · 1.08/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
923.1% acc · 1.17/15 · norm 1.17
4658.2% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
1266.7% def · norm 61.5%
22:1012.3% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
23:3120.4% of cage time · norm 16.5%
41:373:27 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
26:213:25 per 15 · norm 3:11
60.50/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
40.52/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Ferreira has more cage time on record.