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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Dennis Siver vs. Charles Rosa

UFC 12-8-0 (1 NC) vs. 5-8-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
12-8-0 (1 NC)
UFC record
5-8-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
47
AgeΔ 7 yrs
40
5'6"
HeightΔ 3"
5'9"
70"
ReachΔ 1"
69"
Orthodox1-0 vs switch-stance fighters
Stance
Switch5-5 vs orthodox fighters
112.4
Layoff (months)Δ 61 mo
51.4
WLLWNC
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLWL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Charles Rosa is a submission threat — 1.00 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.44 Featherweight norm.
Dennis Siver carries real power — 0.47 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.
Dennis Siver is wasteful with clinch strikes — only 37% land, vs a 68% Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Dennis Siver

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 128
Tier 3 — regional circuit 113

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.85 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 14 finish wins over 35 documented bouts

In the UFC: 6-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.4 wins over .500

Charles Rosa

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 58
Tier 3 — regional circuit 141

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.9 · 5 tier-1/2 wins · 16 finish wins over 28 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.5 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

8693.87/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
5533.08/min · norm 3.52
5982.67/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
6923.86/min · norm 3.54
32.4%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
36.3%norm 44.8%
65.0%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
47.2%norm 54.8%
70.47/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Dennis Siver

Distance 90.5% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 4.7% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 4.8% (norm 8.0%)

Charles Rosa

Distance 93.1% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 2.8% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 4.1% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Dennis Siver

Head 78.1% (norm 78.1%) · Body 8.5% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 13.4% (norm 8.0%)

Charles Rosa

Head 75.5% (norm 77.5%) · Body 11.0% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 13.5% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Siver L/AAccLightweight med Rosa L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 737 / 2423 30.4% 38.4% 492 / 1419 34.7% 40.7%
In the clinch 46 / 126 36.5% 67.5% 23 / 42 54.8% 70.5%
On the ground 86 / 129 66.7% 69.1% 38 / 63 60.3% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 494 / 2091 23.6% 35.3% 307 / 1150 26.7% 37.2%
To the body 118 / 228 51.8% 69.2% 89 / 168 53.0% 68.4%
To the legs 257 / 359 71.6% 81.8% 157 / 206 76.2% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Siver L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Rosa L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 472 / 1477 32.0% 38.9% 500 / 1057 47.3% 39.3%
In the clinch 44 / 77 57.1% 68.6% 53 / 80 66.2% 70.3%
On the ground 82 / 157 52.2% 68.2% 139 / 173 80.3% 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 372 / 1335 27.9% 35.2% 482 / 1048 46.0% 35.9%
To the body 99 / 170 58.2% 68.2% 107 / 145 73.8% 68.1%
To the legs 127 / 206 61.7% 81.5% 103 / 117 88.0% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1332.5% acc · 0.87/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
2035.1% acc · 1.67/15 · norm 1.17
3965.0% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
1938.0% def · norm 61.5%
38:0717.0% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
25:3214.2% of cage time · norm 16.5%
39:502:39 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
63:345:18 per 15 · norm 3:11
50.33/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
121.00/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Siver has more cage time on record.