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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Darrick Minner vs. Darren Elkins

UFC 2-4-0 vs. 19-12-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
2-4-0
UFC record
19-12-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
36
AgeΔ 6 yrs
42
5'7"
HeightΔ 3"
5'10"
69"
ReachΔ 2"
71"
Orthodox1-2 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox15-8 vs orthodox fighters
48
Layoff (months)Δ 45.1 mo
2.9
LLLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWWL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Darrick Minner is a submission threat — 2.85 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.44 Featherweight norm.
Darrick Minner owns the mat — in control 48% of cage time, vs a 16% Featherweight norm.
Darren Elkins hunts takedowns — 2.86 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Darrick Minner

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 25
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 45
Tier 3 — regional circuit 225

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.47 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 25 finish wins over 43 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.2 wins over .500

Darren Elkins

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1911
Tier 3 — regional circuit 101

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.15 · 19 tier-1/2 wins · 15 finish wins over 41 documented bouts

In the UFC: 13-9 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.3 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1142.40/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
11903.39/min · norm 3.52
1092.30/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
11743.34/min · norm 3.54
67.5%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
38.4%norm 44.8%
34.3%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
51.1%norm 54.8%
10.32/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
20.09/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Darrick Minner

Distance 52.7% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 18.3% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 29.0% (norm 6.4%)

Darren Elkins

Distance 75.9% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 11.7% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 12.4% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Darrick Minner

Head 68.0% (norm 77.5%) · Body 19.5% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 12.4% (norm 7.9%)

Darren Elkins

Head 86.2% (norm 77.5%) · Body 11.6% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 2.2% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Minner L/AAccFeatherweight med Elkins L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 52 / 89 58.4% 40.7% 685 / 2350 29.1% 40.7%
In the clinch 26 / 31 83.9% 70.5% 242 / 363 66.7% 70.5%
On the ground 36 / 49 73.5% 69.1% 263 / 385 68.3% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 67 / 115 58.3% 37.2% 904 / 2672 33.8% 37.2%
To the body 31 / 33 93.9% 68.4% 235 / 359 65.5% 68.4%
To the legs 16 / 21 too few to rate 80.7% 51 / 67 76.1% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Minner L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Elkins L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 22 / 48 45.8% 39.3% 819 / 1927 42.5% 39.3%
In the clinch 3 / 5 too few to rate 70.3% 167 / 228 73.2% 70.3%
On the ground 84 / 113 74.3% 69.5% 188 / 246 76.4% 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 82 / 136 60.3% 35.9% 857 / 1997 42.9% 35.9%
To the body 25 / 26 96.2% 68.1% 182 / 245 74.3% 68.1%
To the legs 2 / 4 too few to rate 81.1% 135 / 159 84.9% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
888.9% acc · 2.53/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
6733.8% acc · 2.86/15 · norm 1.17
666.7% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
3256.1% def · norm 61.5%
22:4548.0% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
129:0236.8% of cage time · norm 16.5%
14:484:40 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
53:552:18 per 15 · norm 3:11
92.85/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
251.07/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Elkins has more cage time on record.