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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Darren Elkins vs. Michael Johnson

UFC 19-12-0 vs. 16-16-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
19-12-0
UFC record
16-16-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
42
AgeΔ 2 yrs
40
5'10"
HeightΔ 0"
5'10"
71"
ReachΔ 2"
73"
Orthodox3-3 vs southpaws
Stance
Southpaw10-11 vs orthodox fighters
2.9
Layoff (months)Δ 5.1 mo
8
LLWWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWWL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Darren Elkins hunts takedowns — 2.86 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.
Darren Elkins is a submission threat — 1.07 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.44 Featherweight norm.
Michael Johnson carries real power — 0.53 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Darren Elkins

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1911
Tier 3 — regional circuit 101

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.15 · 19 tier-1/2 wins · 15 finish wins over 41 documented bouts

In the UFC: 13-9 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.3 wins over .500

Michael Johnson

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1616
Tier 3 — regional circuit 84

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.54 · 16 tier-1/2 wins · 12 finish wins over 44 documented bouts

In the UFC: 11-11 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.3 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

11903.39/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
15684.27/min · norm 3.43
11743.34/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
13863.78/min · norm 3.37
38.4%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
39.6%norm 43.7%
51.1%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
58.8%norm 56.3%
20.09/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
130.53/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Darren Elkins

Distance 75.9% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 11.7% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 12.4% (norm 6.4%)

Michael Johnson

Distance 93.5% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 4.0% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 2.5% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Darren Elkins

Head 86.2% (norm 77.5%) · Body 11.6% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 2.2% (norm 7.9%)

Michael Johnson

Head 70.1% (norm 78.1%) · Body 21.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 8.0% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Elkins L/AAccFeatherweight med Johnson L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 685 / 2350 29.1% 40.7% 1405 / 3703 37.9% 38.4%
In the clinch 242 / 363 66.7% 70.5% 101 / 157 64.3% 67.5%
On the ground 263 / 385 68.3% 69.1% 62 / 101 61.4% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 904 / 2672 33.8% 37.2% 829 / 2776 29.9% 35.3%
To the body 235 / 359 65.5% 68.4% 496 / 869 57.1% 69.2%
To the legs 51 / 67 76.1% 80.7% 243 / 316 76.9% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Elkins L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Johnson L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 819 / 1927 42.5% 39.3% 1025 / 2854 35.9% 38.9%
In the clinch 167 / 228 73.2% 70.3% 96 / 140 68.6% 68.6%
On the ground 188 / 246 76.4% 69.5% 265 / 373 71.0% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 857 / 1997 42.9% 35.9% 923 / 2702 34.2% 35.2%
To the body 182 / 245 74.3% 68.1% 231 / 379 60.9% 68.2%
To the legs 135 / 159 84.9% 81.1% 232 / 286 81.1% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
6733.8% acc · 2.86/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
1438.9% acc · 0.57/15 · norm 1.34
3256.1% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
8681.1% def · norm 63.2%
129:0236.8% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
28:497.9% of cage time · norm 19.0%
53:552:18 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
61:252:30 per 15 · norm 2:50
251.07/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
10.04/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Johnson has more cage time on record.