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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Danny Downes vs. Ramsey Nijem

UFC 0-2-0 vs. 5-5-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
0-2-0
UFC record
5-5-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
40
AgeΔ 2 yrs
38
6'0"
HeightΔ 1"
5'11"
72"
ReachΔ 3"
75"
Orthodox0-2 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox4-4 vs orthodox fighters
180.2
Layoff (months)Δ 44.8 mo
135.4
LL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWWL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Ramsey Nijem hunts takedowns — 5.32 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.
Ramsey Nijem owns the mat — in control 48% of cage time, vs a 19% Lightweight norm.
Danny Downes rarely shoots — 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Danny Downes

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 02
Tier 3 — regional circuit 81

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.66 · 0 tier-1/2 wins · 6 finish wins over 11 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500

Ramsey Nijem

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 67
Tier 3 — regional circuit 42

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.4 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 5 finish wins over 19 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.3 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

381.27/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
2583.05/min · norm 3.43
1143.80/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
1371.62/min · norm 3.37
33.0%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
44.4%norm 43.7%
30.9%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
62.9%norm 56.3%
00.00/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
30.53/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Danny Downes

Distance 83.5% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 16.5% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 0.0% (norm 8.0%)

Ramsey Nijem

Distance 66.3% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 11.9% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 21.9% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Danny Downes

Head 70.4% (norm 78.1%) · Body 20.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 8.7% (norm 8.0%)

Ramsey Nijem

Head 84.3% (norm 78.1%) · Body 10.7% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 5.0% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Downes L/AAccLightweight med Nijem L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 22 / 96 22.9% 38.4% 139 / 385 36.1% 38.4%
In the clinch 16 / 19 too few to rate 67.5% 38 / 69 55.1% 67.5%
On the ground 0 / 0 too few to rate 69.1% 81 / 127 63.8% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 13 / 81 16.0% 35.3% 201 / 490 41.0% 35.3%
To the body 18 / 24 too few to rate 69.2% 34 / 62 54.8% 69.2%
To the legs 7 / 10 too few to rate 81.8% 23 / 29 79.3% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Downes L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Nijem L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 51 / 90 56.7% 38.9% 80 / 283 28.3% 38.9%
In the clinch 23 / 26 88.5% 68.6% 27 / 51 52.9% 68.6%
On the ground 40 / 49 81.6% 68.2% 30 / 35 85.7% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 89 / 138 64.5% 35.2% 102 / 305 33.4% 35.2%
To the body 14 / 16 too few to rate 68.2% 22 / 42 52.4% 68.2%
To the legs 11 / 11 too few to rate 81.5% 13 / 22 too few to rate 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
0— acc · 0.00/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
3062.5% acc · 5.32/15 · norm 1.34
836.4% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
555.6% def · norm 63.2%
0:593.3% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
41:0148.5% of cage time · norm 19.0%
21:0010:30 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
11:512:06 per 15 · norm 2:50
10.50/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
61.06/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Nijem has more cage time on record.