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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Daniel Pineda vs. Antonio Carvalho

UFC 5-8-0 (1 NC) vs. 2-2-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
5-8-0 (1 NC)
UFC record
2-2-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
41
AgeΔ 6 yrs
47
5'7"
HeightΔ 2"
5'9"
69"
ReachΔ 1"
70"
Orthodox5-6 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox2-2 vs orthodox fighters
24.5
Layoff (months)Δ 139.2 mo
163.7
LLLWNC
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Daniel Pineda is a submission threat — 1.54 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.44 Featherweight norm.
Antonio Carvalho rarely shoots — 0.00 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.
Antonio Carvalho carries real power — 0.44 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Daniel Pineda

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 612
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 81
Tier 3 — regional circuit 144

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.71 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 28 finish wins over 47 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.6 wins over .500

Antonio Carvalho

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 22
Tier 3 — regional circuit 134

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.64 · 2 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 21 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.2 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3612.85/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
1043.03/min · norm 3.52
4123.26/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
1243.62/min · norm 3.54
49.6%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
29.5%norm 44.8%
45.8%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
65.0%norm 54.8%
20.24/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
10.44/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Daniel Pineda

Distance 73.5% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 4.3% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 22.3% (norm 6.4%)

Antonio Carvalho

Distance 94.1% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 3.1% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 2.8% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Daniel Pineda

Head 78.4% (norm 77.5%) · Body 10.9% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 10.7% (norm 7.9%)

Antonio Carvalho

Head 77.1% (norm 77.5%) · Body 4.5% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 18.4% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Pineda L/AAccFeatherweight med Carvalho L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 213 / 535 39.8% 40.7% 92 / 332 27.7% 40.7%
In the clinch 23 / 31 74.2% 70.5% 7 / 11 too few to rate 70.5%
On the ground 125 / 162 77.2% 69.1% 5 / 10 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 242 / 571 42.4% 37.2% 45 / 272 16.5% 37.2%
To the body 54 / 79 68.4% 68.4% 9 / 16 too few to rate 68.4%
To the legs 65 / 78 83.3% 80.7% 50 / 65 76.9% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Pineda L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Carvalho L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 307 / 605 50.7% 39.3% 108 / 327 33.0% 39.3%
In the clinch 51 / 69 73.9% 70.3% 12 / 20 too few to rate 70.3%
On the ground 54 / 86 62.8% 69.5% 4 / 7 too few to rate 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 267 / 577 46.3% 35.9% 80 / 283 28.3% 35.9%
To the body 104 / 132 78.8% 68.1% 22 / 29 75.9% 68.1%
To the legs 41 / 51 80.4% 81.1% 22 / 42 52.4% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1224.0% acc · 1.42/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
00.0% acc · 0.00/15 · norm 1.17
2954.7% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
2100.0% def · norm 61.5%
32:4425.9% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
2:287.2% of cage time · norm 16.5%
40:244:47 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
3:191:27 per 15 · norm 3:11
131.54/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Pineda has more cage time on record.