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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Cub Swanson vs. Renato Moicano

UFC 16-10-0 vs. 13-8-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
16-10-0
UFC record
13-8-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
43
AgeΔ 6 yrs
37
5'8"
HeightΔ 3"
5'11"
70"
ReachΔ 2"
72"
Orthodox13-8 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox10-2 vs orthodox fighters
6.8
Layoff (months)Δ 6.6 mo
0.2
WWLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Renato Moicano has owned orthodox fighters — 10-2 in the UFC (3-6 vs everyone else), and Cub Swanson is orthodox.
Cub Swanson carries real power — 0.58 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Featherweight norm.
Cub Swanson outworks the Featherweight division — 5.30 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.52 norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Cub Swanson

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1610
Tier 3 — regional circuit 154

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.93 · 16 tier-1/2 wins · 19 finish wins over 45 documented bouts

In the UFC: 12-10 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.9 wins over .500

Renato Moicano

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 137
Tier 3 — regional circuit 80

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.29 · 13 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 29 documented bouts

In the UFC: 9-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.6 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

16455.30/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
7803.91/min · norm 3.43
13804.44/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
7373.69/min · norm 3.37
52.6%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
49.4%norm 43.7%
58.5%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
57.9%norm 56.3%
120.58/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
20.15/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Cub Swanson

Distance 88.3% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 6.4% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 5.3% (norm 6.4%)

Renato Moicano

Distance 88.1% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 2.1% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 9.8% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Cub Swanson

Head 72.9% (norm 77.5%) · Body 13.8% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 13.3% (norm 7.9%)

Renato Moicano

Head 82.4% (norm 78.1%) · Body 7.6% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 10.0% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Swanson L/AAccFeatherweight med Moicano L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1363 / 2764 49.3% 40.7% 645 / 1391 46.4% 38.4%
In the clinch 160 / 199 80.4% 70.5% 25 / 33 75.8% 67.5%
On the ground 122 / 166 73.5% 69.1% 110 / 155 71.0% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 992 / 2281 43.5% 37.2% 566 / 1301 43.5% 35.3%
To the body 323 / 432 74.8% 68.4% 80 / 120 66.7% 69.2%
To the legs 330 / 416 79.3% 80.7% 134 / 158 84.8% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Swanson L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Moicano L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1129 / 2932 38.5% 39.3% 584 / 1547 37.8% 38.9%
In the clinch 127 / 193 65.8% 70.3% 30 / 39 76.9% 68.6%
On the ground 124 / 204 60.8% 69.5% 123 / 163 75.5% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 885 / 2628 33.7% 35.9% 475 / 1409 33.7% 35.2%
To the body 247 / 370 66.8% 68.1% 133 / 187 71.1% 68.2%
To the legs 248 / 331 74.9% 81.1% 129 / 153 84.3% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1451.9% acc · 0.68/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
2442.1% acc · 1.80/15 · norm 1.34
8272.6% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
2762.8% def · norm 63.2%
22:527.4% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
48:2824.3% of cage time · norm 19.0%
58:402:50 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
25:521:56 per 15 · norm 2:50
20.10/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
80.60/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Swanson has more cage time on record.