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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Cub Swanson vs. Dennis Siver

UFC 16-10-0 vs. 12-8-0 (1 NC)

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
16-10-0
UFC record
12-8-0 (1 NC)
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
43
AgeΔ 4 yrs
47
5'8"
HeightΔ 2"
5'6"
70"
ReachΔ 0"
70"
Orthodox13-8 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox9-7 vs orthodox fighters
6.8
Layoff (months)Δ 105.6 mo
112.4
WWLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
WLLWNC

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Cub Swanson carries real power — 0.58 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Featherweight norm.
Dennis Siver carries real power — 0.47 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.
Cub Swanson outworks the Featherweight division — 5.30 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.52 norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Cub Swanson

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1610
Tier 3 — regional circuit 154

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.93 · 16 tier-1/2 wins · 19 finish wins over 45 documented bouts

In the UFC: 12-10 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.9 wins over .500

Dennis Siver

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 128
Tier 3 — regional circuit 113

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.85 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 14 finish wins over 35 documented bouts

In the UFC: 6-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.4 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

16455.30/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
8693.87/min · norm 3.43
13804.44/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
5982.67/min · norm 3.37
52.6%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
32.4%norm 43.7%
58.5%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
65.0%norm 56.3%
120.58/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
70.47/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Cub Swanson

Distance 88.3% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 6.4% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 5.3% (norm 6.4%)

Dennis Siver

Distance 90.5% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 4.7% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 4.8% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Cub Swanson

Head 72.9% (norm 77.5%) · Body 13.8% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 13.3% (norm 7.9%)

Dennis Siver

Head 78.1% (norm 78.1%) · Body 8.5% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 13.4% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Swanson L/AAccFeatherweight med Siver L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1363 / 2764 49.3% 40.7% 737 / 2423 30.4% 38.4%
In the clinch 160 / 199 80.4% 70.5% 46 / 126 36.5% 67.5%
On the ground 122 / 166 73.5% 69.1% 86 / 129 66.7% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 992 / 2281 43.5% 37.2% 494 / 2091 23.6% 35.3%
To the body 323 / 432 74.8% 68.4% 118 / 228 51.8% 69.2%
To the legs 330 / 416 79.3% 80.7% 257 / 359 71.6% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Swanson L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Siver L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1129 / 2932 38.5% 39.3% 472 / 1477 32.0% 38.9%
In the clinch 127 / 193 65.8% 70.3% 44 / 77 57.1% 68.6%
On the ground 124 / 204 60.8% 69.5% 82 / 157 52.2% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 885 / 2628 33.7% 35.9% 372 / 1335 27.9% 35.2%
To the body 247 / 370 66.8% 68.1% 99 / 170 58.2% 68.2%
To the legs 248 / 331 74.9% 81.1% 127 / 206 61.7% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1451.9% acc · 0.68/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
1332.5% acc · 0.87/15 · norm 1.34
8272.6% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
3965.0% def · norm 63.2%
22:527.4% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
38:0717.0% of cage time · norm 19.0%
58:402:50 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
39:502:39 per 15 · norm 2:50
20.10/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
50.33/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Swanson has more cage time on record.