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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Conor McGregor vs. Donald Cerrone

UFC 10-5-0 vs. 23-14-0 (1 NC)

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
10-5-0
UFC record
23-14-0 (1 NC)
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
38
AgeΔ 5 yrs
43
5'9"
HeightΔ 4"
6'1"
74"
ReachΔ 1"
73"
Southpaw7-2 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox5-8 vs southpaws
3.8
Layoff (months)Δ 48.3 mo
52.1
LLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLNCLL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Conor McGregor carries real power — 1.72 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Featherweight norm.
Donald Cerrone carries real power — 0.84 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.
Donald Cerrone absorbs 5.11 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.37 Lightweight norm — hittable.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Conor McGregor

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 105
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 41
Tier 3 — regional circuit 81

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.31 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 20 finish wins over 29 documented bouts

In the UFC: 10-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +7.1 wins over .500

Donald Cerrone

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 2314
Tier 3 — regional circuit 133

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.09 · 23 tier-1/2 wins · 27 finish wins over 55 documented bouts

In the UFC: 20-13 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.8 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

5995.27/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
17484.90/min · norm 3.43
5364.71/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
18255.11/min · norm 3.37
49.5%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
47.4%norm 43.7%
53.9%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
51.6%norm 56.3%
131.72/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
200.84/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Conor McGregor

Distance 84.5% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 6.2% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 9.3% (norm 6.4%)

Donald Cerrone

Distance 89.1% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 6.2% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 4.7% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Conor McGregor

Head 78.8% (norm 77.5%) · Body 13.1% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 8.2% (norm 7.9%)

Donald Cerrone

Head 71.3% (norm 78.1%) · Body 16.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 12.8% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone McGregor L/AAccFeatherweight med Cerrone L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 461 / 1022 45.1% 40.7% 1478 / 3290 44.9% 38.4%
In the clinch 61 / 75 81.3% 70.5% 151 / 229 65.9% 67.5%
On the ground 77 / 113 68.1% 69.1% 119 / 172 69.2% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 419 / 953 44.0% 37.2% 893 / 2630 34.0% 35.3%
To the body 102 / 158 64.6% 68.4% 442 / 589 75.0% 69.2%
To the legs 78 / 99 78.8% 80.7% 413 / 472 87.5% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs McGregor L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Cerrone L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 336 / 864 38.9% 39.3% 1558 / 3375 46.2% 38.9%
In the clinch 96 / 142 67.6% 70.3% 211 / 305 69.2% 68.6%
On the ground 104 / 156 66.7% 69.5% 56 / 88 63.6% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 372 / 913 40.7% 35.9% 1069 / 2721 39.3% 35.2%
To the body 88 / 136 64.7% 68.1% 444 / 668 66.5% 68.2%
To the legs 76 / 113 67.3% 81.1% 312 / 379 82.3% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
555.6% acc · 0.66/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
2428.9% acc · 1.01/15 · norm 1.34
2266.7% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
6288.6% def · norm 63.2%
13:5112.2% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
38:3610.8% of cage time · norm 19.0%
31:344:09 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
19:550:50 per 15 · norm 2:50
10.13/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
110.46/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Cerrone has more cage time on record.