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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Cody McKenzie vs. Aaron Wilkinson

UFC 3-4-0 vs. 0-1-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
3-4-0
UFC record
0-1-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
38
AgeΔ 1 yrs
39
6'0"
HeightΔ 2"
5'10"
72"
Reach
—
Switch2-3 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox0-1 vs switch-stance fighters
154.7
Layoff (months)Δ 36.3 mo
191
LWLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
L

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Aaron Wilkinson hunts takedowns — 7.32 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.
Cody McKenzie is a submission threat — 2.50 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.48 Lightweight norm.
Aaron Wilkinson owns the mat — in control 52% of cage time, vs a 19% Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Cody McKenzie

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 34
Tier 3 — regional circuit 147

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.35 · 3 tier-1/2 wins · 16 finish wins over 28 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.1 wins over .500

Aaron Wilkinson

Full career not yet synced for Aaron Wilkinson — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 0-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.0 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

941.74/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
00.00/min · norm 3.43
1352.50/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
00.00/min · norm 3.37
34.3%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
0.0%norm 43.7%
67.2%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
100.0%norm 56.3%
00.00/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Cody McKenzie

Distance 86.9% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 6.6% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 6.6% (norm 8.0%)

Aaron Wilkinson

Distance 100.0% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 0.0% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 0.0% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Cody McKenzie

Head 88.3% (norm 78.1%) · Body 6.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 4.7% (norm 8.0%)

Aaron Wilkinson

Head 100.0% (norm 78.1%) · Body 0.0% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 0.0% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone McKenzie L/AAccLightweight med Wilkinson L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 67 / 238 28.2% 38.4% 0 / 1 too few to rate 38.4%
In the clinch 12 / 18 too few to rate 67.5% 0 / 0 too few to rate 67.5%
On the ground 15 / 18 too few to rate 69.1% 0 / 0 too few to rate 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 73 / 242 30.2% 35.3% 0 / 1 too few to rate 35.3%
To the body 12 / 19 too few to rate 69.2% 0 / 0 too few to rate 69.2%
To the legs 9 / 13 too few to rate 81.8% 0 / 0 too few to rate 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs McKenzie L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Wilkinson L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 103 / 367 28.1% 38.9% 0 / 2 too few to rate 38.9%
In the clinch 8 / 13 too few to rate 68.6% 0 / 0 too few to rate 68.6%
On the ground 24 / 32 75.0% 68.2% 0 / 0 too few to rate 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 67 / 301 22.3% 35.2% 0 / 2 too few to rate 35.2%
To the body 47 / 83 56.6% 68.2% 0 / 0 too few to rate 68.2%
To the legs 21 / 28 75.0% 81.5% 0 / 0 too few to rate 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
925.0% acc · 2.50/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
1100.0% acc · 7.32/15 · norm 1.34
114.3% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
00.0% def · norm 63.2%
15:1628.3% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
1:0452.0% of cage time · norm 19.0%
11:593:19 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
0:546:35 per 15 · norm 2:50
92.50/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — McKenzie has more cage time on record.