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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Cody Durden vs. Ode Osbourne

UFC 8-9-1 vs. 5-9-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
8-9-1
UFC record
5-9-0
Flyweight
Division (benchmark)
Flyweight
35
AgeΔ 1 yrs
34
5'7"
HeightΔ 0"
5'7"
67"
ReachΔ 6"
73"
Southpaw2-2 vs southpaws
Stance
Southpaw2-2 vs southpaws
0.1
Layoff (months)Δ 0 mo
0.1
WLWLL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLWL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Cody Durden hunts takedowns — 3.99 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.30 Flyweight norm.
Ode Osbourne carries real power — 0.49 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.18 Flyweight norm.
Cody Durden owns the mat — in control 37% of cage time, vs a 17% Flyweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Cody Durden

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 79
Tier 3 — regional circuit 112

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.6 · 7 tier-1/2 wins · 12 finish wins over 30 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.3 wins over .500

Ode Osbourne

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 67
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 01
Tier 3 — regional circuit 71

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.6 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 24 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.5 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

5873.19/min · norm 3.48
Sig. strikes landed
3222.65/min · norm 3.48
6733.66/min · norm 3.24
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
3803.13/min · norm 3.24
45.5%norm 44.6%
Striking accuracy
40.5%norm 44.6%
51.2%norm 56.4%
Striking defense
47.7%norm 56.4%
10.08/15 · norm 0.18
Knockdowns
40.49/15 · norm 0.18

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Cody Durden

Distance 88.8% (norm 85.1%) · Clinch 2.2% (norm 6.0%) · Ground 9.0% (norm 7.5%)

Ode Osbourne

Distance 91.6% (norm 85.1%) · Clinch 2.1% (norm 6.0%) · Ground 6.3% (norm 7.5%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Cody Durden

Head 84.8% (norm 75.9%) · Body 7.4% (norm 13.0%) · Legs 7.8% (norm 9.3%)

Ode Osbourne

Head 80.2% (norm 75.9%) · Body 11.9% (norm 13.0%) · Legs 7.9% (norm 9.3%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Durden L/AAccFlyweight med Osbourne L/AAccFlyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 481 / 1145 42.0% 39.9% 269 / 729 36.9% 39.9%
In the clinch 21 / 28 75.0% 70.1% 13 / 17 too few to rate 70.1%
On the ground 85 / 116 73.3% 71.1% 40 / 50 80.0% 71.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 438 / 1093 40.1% 37.6% 207 / 638 32.4% 37.6%
To the body 69 / 95 72.6% 68.7% 66 / 95 69.5% 68.7%
To the legs 80 / 101 79.2% 79.7% 49 / 63 77.8% 79.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Flyweight: 73 fighters · Flyweight: 73 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Durden L/AOpp accFlyweight med vs Osbourne L/AOpp accFlyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 560 / 1228 45.6% 39.9% 225 / 505 44.6% 39.9%
In the clinch 55 / 75 73.3% 68.8% 42 / 61 68.9% 68.8%
On the ground 58 / 76 76.3% 70.4% 113 / 161 70.2% 70.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 432 / 1030 41.9% 35.4% 226 / 514 44.0% 35.4%
To the body 123 / 199 61.8% 67.9% 87 / 127 68.5% 67.9%
To the legs 118 / 150 78.7% 79.7% 67 / 86 77.9% 79.7%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
4950.5% acc · 3.99/15 · norm 1.30
Takedowns landed
626.1% acc · 0.74/15 · norm 1.30
1356.5% def · norm 61.2%
Takedowns stopped
3159.6% def · norm 61.2%
68:3437.3% of cage time · norm 17.0%
Control time
11:249.4% of cage time · norm 17.0%
27:262:14 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control lower is better
44:065:26 per 15 · norm 2:46
80.65/15 · norm 0.58
Submission attempts
30.37/15 · norm 0.58

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Durden has more cage time on record.