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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Cody Durden vs. Joshua Van

UFC 8-9-1 vs. 11-1-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
8-9-1
UFC record
11-1-0
Flyweight
Division (benchmark)
Flyweight
35
AgeΔ 10 yrs
25
5'7"
HeightΔ 2"
5'5"
67"
ReachΔ 2"
65"
Southpaw5-7-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox2-0 vs southpaws
0.1
Layoff (months)Δ 1.4 mo
1.5
WLWLL
Last 5 (newest first)
WWWWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Joshua Van carries real power — 0.70 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.18 Flyweight norm.
Cody Durden hunts takedowns — 3.99 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.30 Flyweight norm.
Joshua Van outworks the Flyweight division — 8.26 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.48 norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Cody Durden

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 79
Tier 3 — regional circuit 112

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.6 · 7 tier-1/2 wins · 12 finish wins over 30 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.3 wins over .500

Joshua Van

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 101
Tier 3 — regional circuit 71

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.67 · 10 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 19 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.7 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

5873.19/min · norm 3.48
Sig. strikes landed
14118.26/min · norm 3.48
6733.66/min · norm 3.24
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
9965.83/min · norm 3.24
45.5%norm 44.6%
Striking accuracy
57.6%norm 44.6%
51.2%norm 56.4%
Striking defense
57.0%norm 56.4%
10.08/15 · norm 0.18
Knockdowns
80.70/15 · norm 0.18

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Cody Durden

Distance 88.8% (norm 85.1%) · Clinch 2.2% (norm 6.0%) · Ground 9.0% (norm 7.5%)

Joshua Van

Distance 90.1% (norm 85.1%) · Clinch 5.6% (norm 6.0%) · Ground 4.3% (norm 7.5%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Cody Durden

Head 84.8% (norm 75.9%) · Body 7.4% (norm 13.0%) · Legs 7.8% (norm 9.3%)

Joshua Van

Head 82.6% (norm 75.9%) · Body 12.5% (norm 13.0%) · Legs 4.9% (norm 9.3%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Durden L/AAccFlyweight med Van L/AAccFlyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 481 / 1145 42.0% 39.9% 1230 / 2207 55.7% 39.9%
In the clinch 21 / 28 75.0% 70.1% 111 / 137 81.0% 70.1%
On the ground 85 / 116 73.3% 71.1% 70 / 105 66.7% 71.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 438 / 1093 40.1% 37.6% 1050 / 2024 51.9% 37.6%
To the body 69 / 95 72.6% 68.7% 252 / 305 82.6% 68.7%
To the legs 80 / 101 79.2% 79.7% 109 / 120 90.8% 79.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Flyweight: 73 fighters · Flyweight: 73 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Durden L/AOpp accFlyweight med vs Van L/AOpp accFlyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 560 / 1228 45.6% 39.9% 936 / 2231 42.0% 39.9%
In the clinch 55 / 75 73.3% 68.8% 43 / 63 68.3% 68.8%
On the ground 58 / 76 76.3% 70.4% 17 / 24 too few to rate 70.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 432 / 1030 41.9% 35.4% 662 / 1860 35.6% 35.4%
To the body 123 / 199 61.8% 67.9% 162 / 241 67.2% 67.9%
To the legs 118 / 150 78.7% 79.7% 172 / 217 79.3% 79.7%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
4950.5% acc · 3.99/15 · norm 1.30
Takedowns landed
861.5% acc · 0.70/15 · norm 1.30
1356.5% def · norm 61.2%
Takedowns stopped
6975.0% def · norm 61.2%
68:3437.3% of cage time · norm 17.0%
Control time
12:537.5% of cage time · norm 17.0%
27:262:14 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control lower is better
31:352:46 per 15 · norm 2:46
80.65/15 · norm 0.58
Submission attempts
30.26/15 · norm 0.58

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Durden has more cage time on record.