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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Clay Guida vs. Robert Peralta

UFC 18-19-0 vs. 4-3-0 (1 NC)

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
18-19-0
UFC record
4-3-0 (1 NC)
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
44
AgeΔ 4 yrs
40
5'7"
HeightΔ 1"
5'8"
70"
ReachΔ 1"
71"
Orthodox13-11 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox4-3 vs orthodox fighters
22.9
Layoff (months)Δ 116.1 mo
139
LLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWWL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Robert Peralta carries real power — 0.69 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Featherweight norm.
Clay Guida hunts takedowns — 2.76 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.
Clay Guida owns the mat — in control 37% of cage time, vs a 19% Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Clay Guida

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1819
Tier 3 — regional circuit 195

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.66 · 18 tier-1/2 wins · 22 finish wins over 61 documented bouts

In the UFC: 10-16 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.3 wins over .500

Robert Peralta

Full career not yet synced for Robert Peralta — tier grading appears once their record documentation lands (refreshes weekly).

In the UFC: 1-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.9 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

11562.73/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
3023.47/min · norm 3.52
13443.18/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
2582.97/min · norm 3.54
33.2%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
44.6%norm 44.8%
60.9%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
52.4%norm 54.8%
60.21/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
40.69/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Clay Guida

Distance 82.1% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 6.4% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 11.5% (norm 8.0%)

Robert Peralta

Distance 79.5% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 16.0% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 4.6% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Clay Guida

Head 82.6% (norm 78.1%) · Body 8.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 9.0% (norm 8.0%)

Robert Peralta

Head 68.2% (norm 77.5%) · Body 14.2% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 17.6% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Guida L/AAccLightweight med Peralta L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 753 / 2862 26.3% 38.4% 196 / 538 36.4% 40.7%
In the clinch 158 / 223 70.9% 67.5% 80 / 108 74.1% 70.5%
On the ground 245 / 401 61.1% 69.1% 26 / 31 83.9% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 691 / 2881 24.0% 35.3% 121 / 462 26.2% 37.2%
To the body 186 / 291 63.9% 69.2% 71 / 96 74.0% 68.4%
To the legs 279 / 314 88.9% 81.8% 110 / 119 92.4% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Guida L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Peralta L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1018 / 3003 33.9% 38.9% 146 / 394 37.1% 39.3%
In the clinch 208 / 287 72.5% 68.6% 69 / 86 80.2% 70.3%
On the ground 118 / 147 80.3% 68.2% 43 / 62 69.4% 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 1031 / 3003 34.3% 35.2% 89 / 330 27.0% 35.9%
To the body 211 / 309 68.3% 68.2% 69 / 91 75.8% 68.1%
To the legs 102 / 125 81.6% 81.5% 100 / 121 82.6% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
7833.6% acc · 2.76/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
466.7% acc · 0.69/15 · norm 1.17
5069.4% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
2964.4% def · norm 61.5%
156:2737.0% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
8:5410.2% of cage time · norm 16.5%
38:511:22 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
34:195:55 per 15 · norm 3:11
160.57/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Guida has more cage time on record.