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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Clay Guida vs. Chad Mendes

UFC 18-19-0 vs. 9-5-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
18-19-0
UFC record
9-5-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
44
AgeΔ 3 yrs
41
5'7"
HeightΔ 1"
5'6"
70"
ReachΔ 4"
66"
Orthodox13-11 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox8-4 vs orthodox fighters
22.9
Layoff (months)Δ 71.3 mo
94.2
LLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Chad Mendes carries real power — 1.03 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Featherweight norm.
Chad Mendes hunts takedowns — 3.48 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.
Clay Guida hunts takedowns — 2.76 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Clay Guida

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1819
Tier 3 — regional circuit 195

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.66 · 18 tier-1/2 wins · 22 finish wins over 61 documented bouts

In the UFC: 10-16 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.3 wins over .500

Chad Mendes

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 95
Tier 3 — regional circuit 90

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.28 · 9 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 23 documented bouts

In the UFC: 6-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.6 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

11562.73/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
3813.28/min · norm 3.52
13443.18/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
3322.85/min · norm 3.54
33.2%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
50.3%norm 44.8%
60.9%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
67.5%norm 54.8%
60.21/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
81.03/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Clay Guida

Distance 82.1% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 6.4% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 11.5% (norm 8.0%)

Chad Mendes

Distance 78.6% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 4.7% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 16.6% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Clay Guida

Head 82.6% (norm 78.1%) · Body 8.3% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 9.0% (norm 8.0%)

Chad Mendes

Head 77.2% (norm 77.5%) · Body 6.5% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 16.4% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Guida L/AAccLightweight med Mendes L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 753 / 2862 26.3% 38.4% 260 / 596 43.6% 40.7%
In the clinch 158 / 223 70.9% 67.5% 24 / 36 66.7% 70.5%
On the ground 245 / 401 61.1% 69.1% 97 / 126 77.0% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 691 / 2881 24.0% 35.3% 257 / 585 43.9% 37.2%
To the body 186 / 291 63.9% 69.2% 33 / 49 67.3% 68.4%
To the legs 279 / 314 88.9% 81.8% 91 / 124 73.4% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Guida L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Mendes L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1018 / 3003 33.9% 38.9% 292 / 965 30.3% 39.3%
In the clinch 208 / 287 72.5% 68.6% 13 / 27 48.1% 70.3%
On the ground 118 / 147 80.3% 68.2% 27 / 29 93.1% 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 1031 / 3003 34.3% 35.2% 226 / 841 26.9% 35.9%
To the body 211 / 309 68.3% 68.2% 63 / 107 58.9% 68.1%
To the legs 102 / 125 81.6% 81.5% 43 / 73 58.9% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
7833.6% acc · 2.76/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
2748.2% acc · 3.48/15 · norm 1.17
5069.4% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
14100.0% def · norm 61.5%
156:2737.0% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
29:4425.6% of cage time · norm 16.5%
38:511:22 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
2:060:16 per 15 · norm 3:11
160.57/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
20.26/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Guida has more cage time on record.