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UFC simulation vs. the market Fight

Chris Wade vs. Rustam Khabilov

UFC 5-2-0 vs. 10-3-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
5-2-0
UFC record
10-3-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
39
AgeΔ 1 yrs
40
5'10"
HeightΔ 2"
5'8"
70"
ReachΔ 3"
73"
Orthodox4-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox8-1 vs orthodox fighters
111.5
Layoff (months)Δ 27.6 mo
83.9
WLLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
WLWWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Chris Wade has owned orthodox fighters — 4-1 in the UFC (1-1 vs everyone else), and Rustam Khabilov is orthodox.
Rustam Khabilov has owned orthodox fighters — 8-1 in the UFC (2-2 vs everyone else), and Chris Wade is orthodox.
Rustam Khabilov hunts takedowns — 3.95 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Chris Wade

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 149
Tier 3 — regional circuit 71

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.14 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 8 finish wins over 31 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.4 wins over .500

Rustam Khabilov

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 113
Tier 3 — regional circuit 131

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.37 · 11 tier-1/2 wins · 9 finish wins over 28 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.0 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1371.70/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
3391.98/min · norm 3.43
1411.75/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
3692.16/min · norm 3.37
53.9%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
34.3%norm 43.7%
51.9%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
65.7%norm 56.3%
10.19/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
10.09/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Chris Wade

Distance 66.1% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 17.7% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 16.1% (norm 8.0%)

Rustam Khabilov

Distance 82.5% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 5.6% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 11.9% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Chris Wade

Head 61.4% (norm 78.1%) · Body 18.5% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 20.1% (norm 8.0%)

Rustam Khabilov

Head 84.2% (norm 78.1%) · Body 9.6% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 6.2% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Wade L/AAccLightweight med Khabilov L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 74 / 168 44.0% 38.4% 223 / 815 27.4% 38.4%
In the clinch 37 / 45 82.2% 67.5% 30 / 55 54.5% 67.5%
On the ground 26 / 41 63.4% 69.1% 86 / 118 72.9% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 66 / 156 42.3% 35.3% 252 / 832 30.3% 35.3%
To the body 29 / 47 61.7% 69.2% 49 / 95 51.6% 69.2%
To the legs 42 / 51 82.4% 81.8% 38 / 61 62.3% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Wade L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Khabilov L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 66 / 199 33.2% 38.9% 314 / 982 32.0% 38.9%
In the clinch 32 / 48 66.7% 68.6% 45 / 72 62.5% 68.6%
On the ground 43 / 46 93.5% 68.2% 10 / 23 too few to rate 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 75 / 208 36.1% 35.2% 165 / 775 21.3% 35.2%
To the body 33 / 47 70.2% 68.2% 87 / 153 56.9% 68.2%
To the legs 33 / 38 86.8% 81.5% 117 / 149 78.5% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1451.9% acc · 2.60/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
4541.7% acc · 3.95/15 · norm 1.34
1655.2% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
1161.1% def · norm 63.2%
35:3044.0% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
45:3226.6% of cage time · norm 19.0%
25:284:44 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
11:421:01 per 15 · norm 2:50
61.12/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
10.09/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Khabilov has more cage time on record.