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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Chris Gutierrez vs. Cody Durden

UFC 10-4-1 vs. 8-9-1

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
10-4-1
UFC record
8-9-1
Bantamweight
Division (benchmark)
Flyweight
35
AgeΔ 0 yrs
35
5'9"
HeightΔ 2"
5'7"
67"
ReachΔ 0"
67"
Orthodox1-0-1 vs southpaws
Stance
Southpaw5-7-1 vs orthodox fighters
13
Layoff (months)Δ 12.9 mo
0.1
LWWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
WLWLL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Cody Durden hunts takedowns — 3.99 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.30 Flyweight norm.
Cody Durden owns the mat — in control 37% of cage time, vs a 17% Flyweight norm.
Chris Gutierrez rarely shoots — 0.30 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.12 Bantamweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Chris Gutierrez

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 114
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 20
Tier 3 — regional circuit 93

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.14 · 13 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 31 documented bouts

In the UFC: 6-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.0 wins over .500

Cody Durden

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 79
Tier 3 — regional circuit 112

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.6 · 7 tier-1/2 wins · 12 finish wins over 30 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.3 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

8954.40/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
5873.19/min · norm 3.48
5392.65/min · norm 3.58
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
6733.66/min · norm 3.24
57.6%norm 43.5%
Striking accuracy
45.5%norm 44.6%
63.4%norm 56.6%
Striking defense
51.2%norm 56.4%
60.44/15 · norm 0.29
Knockdowns
10.08/15 · norm 0.18

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Chris Gutierrez

Distance 95.9% (norm 87.4%) · Clinch 1.7% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 2.4% (norm 6.4%)

Cody Durden

Distance 88.8% (norm 85.1%) · Clinch 2.2% (norm 6.0%) · Ground 9.0% (norm 7.5%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Chris Gutierrez

Head 51.6% (norm 77.5%) · Body 10.7% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 37.7% (norm 8.4%)

Cody Durden

Head 84.8% (norm 75.9%) · Body 7.4% (norm 13.0%) · Legs 7.8% (norm 9.3%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Gutierrez L/AAccBantamweight med Durden L/AAccFlyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 852 / 1491 57.1% 39.2% 481 / 1145 42.0% 39.9%
In the clinch 17 / 27 63.0% 69.0% 21 / 28 75.0% 70.1%
On the ground 26 / 37 70.3% 70.2% 85 / 116 73.3% 71.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 339 / 802 42.3% 35.3% 438 / 1093 40.1% 37.6%
To the body 101 / 166 60.8% 66.9% 69 / 95 72.6% 68.7%
To the legs 455 / 587 77.5% 79.2% 80 / 101 79.2% 79.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Bantamweight: 121 fighters · Flyweight: 73 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Gutierrez L/AOpp accBantamweight med vs Durden L/AOpp accFlyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 453 / 1341 33.8% 39.4% 560 / 1228 45.6% 39.9%
In the clinch 13 / 20 too few to rate 70.6% 55 / 75 73.3% 68.8%
On the ground 73 / 112 65.2% 72.1% 58 / 76 76.3% 70.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 266 / 1029 25.9% 34.9% 432 / 1030 41.9% 35.4%
To the body 116 / 212 54.7% 66.1% 123 / 199 61.8% 67.9%
To the legs 157 / 232 67.7% 78.8% 118 / 150 78.7% 79.7%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
430.8% acc · 0.30/15 · norm 1.12
Takedowns landed
4950.5% acc · 3.99/15 · norm 1.30
3867.9% def · norm 65.7%
Takedowns stopped
1356.5% def · norm 61.2%
8:594.4% of cage time · norm 17.8%
Control time
68:3437.3% of cage time · norm 17.0%
46:063:24 per 15 · norm 2:24
Time under control lower is better
27:262:14 per 15 · norm 2:46
10.07/15 · norm 0.28
Submission attempts
80.65/15 · norm 0.58

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Durden has more cage time on record.