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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Carlos Prates vs. Michael Morales

UFC 7-1-0 vs. 7-0-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
7-1-0
UFC record
7-0-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
33
AgeΔ 6 yrs
27
6'1"
HeightΔ 1"
6'0"
78"
ReachΔ 1"
79"
Switch4-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox
6.1
Layoff (months)Δ 5.5 mo
11.6
WWWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
WWWWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Carlos Prates carries real power — 2.32 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.38 Welterweight norm.
Michael Morales carries real power — 1.84 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.38 Welterweight norm.
Michael Morales outworks the Welterweight division — 6.25 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.17 norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Carlos Prates

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 102
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 20
Tier 3 — regional circuit 125

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.22 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 22 finish wins over 31 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +6.0 wins over .500

Michael Morales

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 80
Tier 3 — regional circuit 110

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.97 · 8 tier-1/2 wins · 15 finish wins over 19 documented bouts

In the UFC: 5-0 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.9 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3394.38/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
3566.25/min · norm 3.17
3374.35/min · norm 3.08
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
1833.21/min · norm 3.08
54.1%norm 44.75%
Striking accuracy
49.9%norm 44.75%
47.7%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
57.4%norm 55.25%
122.32/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
71.84/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Carlos Prates

Distance 93.1% (norm 80.7%) · Clinch 1.0% (norm 9.6%) · Ground 5.9% (norm 8.1%)

Michael Morales

Distance 84.6% (norm 80.7%) · Clinch 5.2% (norm 9.6%) · Ground 10.2% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Carlos Prates

Head 72.1% (norm 78.3%) · Body 13.7% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 14.2% (norm 8.0%)

Michael Morales

Head 86.7% (norm 78.3%) · Body 4.9% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 8.4% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Prates L/AAccWelterweight med Morales L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 307 / 584 52.6% 38.5% 274 / 603 45.4% 38.5%
In the clinch 3 / 6 too few to rate 67.8% 22 / 37 59.5% 67.8%
On the ground 29 / 37 78.4% 67.0% 60 / 73 82.2% 67.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 203 / 452 44.9% 36.4% 286 / 618 46.3% 36.4%
To the body 61 / 86 70.9% 70.7% 24 / 35 68.6% 70.7%
To the legs 75 / 89 84.3% 83.1% 46 / 60 76.7% 83.1%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 180 fighters · Welterweight: 180 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Prates L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Morales L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 325 / 624 52.1% 39.1% 171 / 407 42.0% 39.1%
In the clinch 8 / 15 too few to rate 68.9% 11 / 18 too few to rate 68.9%
On the ground 4 / 5 too few to rate 68.0% 1 / 5 too few to rate 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 182 / 434 41.9% 35.6% 106 / 321 33.0% 35.6%
To the body 40 / 67 59.7% 69.6% 44 / 60 73.3% 69.6%
To the legs 115 / 143 80.4% 82.1% 33 / 49 67.3% 82.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1100.0% acc · 0.19/15 · norm 1.31
Takedowns landed
125.0% acc · 0.26/15 · norm 1.31
3179.5% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
2388.5% def · norm 63.9%
3:474.9% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
3:195.8% of cage time · norm 18.5%
11:222:12 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control lower is better
7:512:03 per 15 · norm 3:15
00.00/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Prates has more cage time on record.