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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Bryce Mitchell vs. Ilia Topuria

UFC 10-3-0 vs. 9-1-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
10-3-0
UFC record
9-1-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
32
AgeΔ 3 yrs
29
5'10"
HeightΔ 3"
5'7"
70"
ReachΔ 1"
69"
Southpaw8-3 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox2-0 vs southpaws
5
Layoff (months)Δ 0.3 mo
4.7
WWLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Ilia Topuria carries real power — 1.15 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Featherweight norm.
Bryce Mitchell owns the mat — in control 55% of cage time, vs a 16% Featherweight norm.
Bryce Mitchell is a submission threat — 1.27 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.44 Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Bryce Mitchell

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 103
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 10
Tier 3 — regional circuit 80

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.54 · 11 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 22 documented bouts

In the UFC: 5-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.4 wins over .500

Ilia Topuria

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 90
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 20
Tier 3 — regional circuit 60

Tier-weighted record quality: 2.27 · 11 tier-1/2 wins · 15 finish wins over 17 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +6.2 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3372.19/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
5024.82/min · norm 3.52
2321.51/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
4143.97/min · norm 3.54
59.0%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
50.1%norm 44.8%
58.9%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
62.1%norm 54.8%
10.10/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
81.15/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Bryce Mitchell

Distance 67.3% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 7.0% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 25.7% (norm 6.4%)

Ilia Topuria

Distance 84.3% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 4.5% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 11.2% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Bryce Mitchell

Head 64.4% (norm 77.5%) · Body 26.3% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 9.3% (norm 7.9%)

Ilia Topuria

Head 78.3% (norm 77.5%) · Body 15.1% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 6.6% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Mitchell L/AAccFeatherweight med Topuria L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 188 / 384 49.0% 40.7% 387 / 845 45.8% 40.7%
In the clinch 30 / 40 75.0% 70.5% 34 / 45 75.6% 70.5%
On the ground 119 / 147 81.0% 69.1% 81 / 112 72.3% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 192 / 368 52.2% 37.2% 343 / 785 43.7% 37.2%
To the body 100 / 150 66.7% 68.4% 106 / 151 70.2% 68.4%
To the legs 45 / 53 84.9% 80.7% 53 / 66 80.3% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Mitchell L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Topuria L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 167 / 471 35.5% 39.3% 383 / 1046 36.6% 39.3%
In the clinch 12 / 22 too few to rate 70.3% 24 / 34 70.6% 70.3%
On the ground 53 / 72 73.6% 69.5% 7 / 11 too few to rate 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 145 / 434 33.4% 35.9% 257 / 841 30.6% 35.9%
To the body 57 / 95 60.0% 68.1% 85 / 167 50.9% 68.1%
To the legs 30 / 36 83.3% 81.1% 72 / 83 86.7% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
3236.4% acc · 3.12/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
1257.1% acc · 1.73/15 · norm 1.17
538.5% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
2095.2% def · norm 61.5%
84:3755.0% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
21:2020.5% of cage time · norm 16.5%
23:302:17 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
6:330:56 per 15 · norm 3:11
131.27/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
60.86/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Mitchell has more cage time on record.