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UFC simulation vs. the market Fight

Brad Riddell vs. Renato Moicano

UFC 4-3-0 vs. 13-8-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
4-3-0
UFC record
13-8-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
35
AgeΔ 2 yrs
37
5'7"
HeightΔ 4"
5'11"
71"
ReachΔ 1"
72"
Orthodox3-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox10-2 vs orthodox fighters
47.8
Layoff (months)Δ 47.6 mo
0.2
LLLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LWLLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Renato Moicano has owned orthodox fighters — 10-2 in the UFC (3-6 vs everyone else), and Brad Riddell is orthodox.
Brad Riddell outworks the Lightweight division — 4.71 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.43 norm.
Renato Moicano hunts takedowns — 1.80 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Brad Riddell

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 43
Tier 3 — regional circuit 61

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.78 · 4 tier-1/2 wins · 5 finish wins over 14 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.0 wins over .500

Renato Moicano

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 137
Tier 3 — regional circuit 80

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.29 · 13 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 29 documented bouts

In the UFC: 9-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.6 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

3604.71/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
7803.91/min · norm 3.43
2703.53/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
7373.69/min · norm 3.37
53.7%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
49.4%norm 43.7%
53.6%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
57.9%norm 56.3%
10.20/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
20.15/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Brad Riddell

Distance 88.1% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 2.8% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 9.1% (norm 8.0%)

Renato Moicano

Distance 88.1% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 2.1% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 9.8% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Brad Riddell

Head 75.9% (norm 78.1%) · Body 16.4% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.7% (norm 8.0%)

Renato Moicano

Head 82.4% (norm 78.1%) · Body 7.6% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 10.0% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Riddell L/AAccLightweight med Moicano L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 297 / 591 50.3% 38.4% 645 / 1391 46.4% 38.4%
In the clinch 16 / 19 too few to rate 67.5% 25 / 33 75.8% 67.5%
On the ground 47 / 61 77.0% 69.1% 110 / 155 71.0% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 233 / 509 45.8% 35.3% 566 / 1301 43.5% 35.3%
To the body 80 / 110 72.7% 69.2% 80 / 120 66.7% 69.2%
To the legs 47 / 52 90.4% 81.8% 134 / 158 84.8% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Riddell L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Moicano L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 240 / 545 44.0% 38.9% 584 / 1547 37.8% 38.9%
In the clinch 16 / 20 too few to rate 68.6% 30 / 39 76.9% 68.6%
On the ground 14 / 17 too few to rate 68.2% 123 / 163 75.5% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 169 / 453 37.3% 35.2% 475 / 1409 33.7% 35.2%
To the body 62 / 79 78.5% 68.2% 133 / 187 71.1% 68.2%
To the legs 39 / 50 78.0% 81.5% 129 / 153 84.3% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
936.0% acc · 1.77/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
2442.1% acc · 1.80/15 · norm 1.34
2663.4% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
2762.8% def · norm 63.2%
9:2512.3% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
48:2824.3% of cage time · norm 19.0%
17:403:28 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
25:521:56 per 15 · norm 2:50
00.00/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
80.60/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Moicano has more cage time on record.