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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Billy Quarantillo vs. Edson Barboza

UFC 6-6-0 vs. 18-15-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
6-6-0
UFC record
18-15-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
37
AgeΔ 3 yrs
40
5'10"
HeightΔ 1"
5'11"
70"
ReachΔ 5"
75"
Orthodox2-4 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox13-12 vs orthodox fighters
2.9
Layoff (months)Δ 0.2 mo
2.7
LLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Edson Barboza carries real power — 0.62 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.
Billy Quarantillo is a submission threat — 0.98 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.44 Featherweight norm.
Billy Quarantillo outworks the Featherweight division — 6.80 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.52 norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Billy Quarantillo

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 75
Tier 3 — regional circuit 112

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.0 · 7 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 25 documented bouts

In the UFC: 4-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.8 wins over .500

Edson Barboza

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1814
Tier 3 — regional circuit 60

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.06 · 18 tier-1/2 wins · 15 finish wins over 38 documented bouts

In the UFC: 13-13 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.2 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

9366.80/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
16164.15/min · norm 3.43
8366.07/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
18554.76/min · norm 3.37
50.3%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
44.7%norm 43.7%
44.3%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
55.5%norm 56.3%
20.22/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
160.62/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Billy Quarantillo

Distance 80.0% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 10.0% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 10.0% (norm 6.4%)

Edson Barboza

Distance 94.7% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 2.7% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 2.5% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Billy Quarantillo

Head 79.5% (norm 77.5%) · Body 15.6% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 4.8% (norm 7.9%)

Edson Barboza

Head 65.6% (norm 78.1%) · Body 20.4% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 14.1% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Quarantillo L/AAccFeatherweight med Barboza L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 641 / 1488 43.1% 40.7% 1476 / 3425 43.1% 38.4%
In the clinch 151 / 187 80.7% 70.5% 80 / 98 81.6% 67.5%
On the ground 144 / 186 77.4% 69.1% 60 / 92 65.2% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 649 / 1480 43.9% 37.2% 707 / 2371 29.8% 35.3%
To the body 214 / 291 73.5% 68.4% 511 / 736 69.4% 69.2%
To the legs 73 / 90 81.1% 80.7% 398 / 508 78.3% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Quarantillo L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Barboza L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 664 / 1253 53.0% 39.3% 1494 / 3662 40.8% 38.9%
In the clinch 114 / 147 77.6% 70.3% 90 / 134 67.2% 68.6%
On the ground 58 / 100 58.0% 69.5% 271 / 374 72.5% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 590 / 1190 49.6% 35.9% 1343 / 3460 38.8% 35.2%
To the body 161 / 214 75.2% 68.1% 254 / 398 63.8% 68.2%
To the legs 85 / 96 88.5% 81.1% 258 / 312 82.7% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1425.9% acc · 1.53/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
1150.0% acc · 0.42/15 · norm 1.34
3260.4% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
7673.1% def · norm 63.2%
34:5625.4% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
24:396.3% of cage time · norm 19.0%
35:233:51 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
67:122:35 per 15 · norm 2:50
90.98/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
20.08/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Barboza has more cage time on record.