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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Billy Quarantillo vs. Alexander Hernandez

UFC 6-6-0 vs. 11-8-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
6-6-0
UFC record
11-8-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
37
AgeΔ 3 yrs
34
5'10"
HeightΔ 1"
5'9"
70"
ReachΔ 2"
72"
Orthodox2-4 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox5-5 vs orthodox fighters
2.9
Layoff (months)Δ 1.8 mo
1.1
LLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
WLWWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Alexander Hernandez carries real power — 0.62 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.
Billy Quarantillo is a submission threat — 0.98 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.44 Featherweight norm.
Billy Quarantillo outworks the Featherweight division — 6.80 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.52 norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Billy Quarantillo

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 75
Tier 3 — regional circuit 112

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.0 · 7 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 25 documented bouts

In the UFC: 4-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.8 wins over .500

Alexander Hernandez

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 108
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 20
Tier 3 — regional circuit 61

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.04 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 10 finish wins over 27 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.4 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

9366.80/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
8254.24/min · norm 3.43
8366.07/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
8574.40/min · norm 3.37
50.3%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
40.5%norm 43.7%
44.3%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
59.6%norm 56.3%
20.22/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
80.62/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Billy Quarantillo

Distance 80.0% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 10.0% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 10.0% (norm 6.4%)

Alexander Hernandez

Distance 90.4% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 4.5% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 5.1% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Billy Quarantillo

Head 79.5% (norm 77.5%) · Body 15.6% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 4.8% (norm 7.9%)

Alexander Hernandez

Head 72.9% (norm 78.1%) · Body 19.6% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 7.5% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Quarantillo L/AAccFeatherweight med Hernandez L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 641 / 1488 43.1% 40.7% 695 / 1842 37.7% 38.4%
In the clinch 151 / 187 80.7% 70.5% 61 / 92 66.3% 67.5%
On the ground 144 / 186 77.4% 69.1% 69 / 103 67.0% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 649 / 1480 43.9% 37.2% 465 / 1484 31.3% 35.3%
To the body 214 / 291 73.5% 68.4% 252 / 400 63.0% 69.2%
To the legs 73 / 90 81.1% 80.7% 108 / 153 70.6% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Quarantillo L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Hernandez L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 664 / 1253 53.0% 39.3% 737 / 1952 37.8% 38.9%
In the clinch 114 / 147 77.6% 70.3% 86 / 124 69.4% 68.6%
On the ground 58 / 100 58.0% 69.5% 34 / 46 73.9% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 590 / 1190 49.6% 35.9% 515 / 1627 31.7% 35.2%
To the body 161 / 214 75.2% 68.1% 203 / 324 62.7% 68.2%
To the legs 85 / 96 88.5% 81.1% 139 / 171 81.3% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1425.9% acc · 1.53/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
1335.1% acc · 1.00/15 · norm 1.34
3260.4% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
3368.8% def · norm 63.2%
34:5625.4% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
26:5213.8% of cage time · norm 19.0%
35:233:51 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
17:121:19 per 15 · norm 2:50
90.98/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
10.08/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Hernandez has more cage time on record.