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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Arnold Allen vs. Movsar Evloev

UFC 12-3-0 vs. 10-1-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
12-3-0
UFC record
10-1-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
32
AgeΔ 0 yrs
32
5'8"
HeightΔ 1"
5'7"
70"
ReachΔ 2"
72"
Southpaw9-3 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox1-0 vs southpaws
5.7
Layoff (months)Δ 5.3 mo
0.4
WLWLL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Movsar Evloev hunts takedowns — 4.77 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.
Movsar Evloev owns the mat — in control 34% of cage time, vs a 16% Featherweight norm.
Arnold Allen is wasteful with clinch strikes — only 50% land, vs a 70% Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Arnold Allen

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 123
Tier 2 — LFA / Cage Warriors (feeder belts) 51
Tier 3 — regional circuit 40

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.69 · 17 tier-1/2 wins · 11 finish wins over 25 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.3 wins over .500

Movsar Evloev

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 100
Tier 3 — regional circuit 100

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.78 · 10 tier-1/2 wins · 7 finish wins over 20 documented bouts

In the UFC: 8-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +5.5 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

7653.52/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
6653.91/min · norm 3.52
6843.15/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
5042.97/min · norm 3.54
44.0%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
48.3%norm 44.8%
60.2%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
60.2%norm 54.8%
40.28/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Arnold Allen

Distance 92.4% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 3.5% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 4.2% (norm 6.4%)

Movsar Evloev

Distance 85.4% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 5.4% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 9.2% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Arnold Allen

Head 82.7% (norm 77.5%) · Body 12.0% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 5.3% (norm 7.9%)

Movsar Evloev

Head 85.5% (norm 77.5%) · Body 9.1% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 5.4% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Allen L/AAccFeatherweight med Evloev L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 681 / 1606 42.4% 40.7% 501 / 1176 42.6% 40.7%
In the clinch 30 / 60 50.0% 70.5% 58 / 75 77.3% 70.5%
On the ground 54 / 73 74.0% 69.1% 106 / 126 84.1% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 562 / 1438 39.1% 37.2% 507 / 1178 43.0% 37.2%
To the body 138 / 209 66.0% 68.4% 102 / 125 81.6% 68.4%
To the legs 65 / 92 70.7% 80.7% 56 / 74 75.7% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Allen L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Evloev L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 615 / 1617 38.0% 39.3% 421 / 1157 36.4% 39.3%
In the clinch 52 / 80 65.0% 70.3% 42 / 53 79.2% 70.3%
On the ground 17 / 22 too few to rate 69.5% 41 / 57 71.9% 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 378 / 1305 29.0% 35.9% 323 / 1010 32.0% 35.9%
To the body 166 / 245 67.8% 68.1% 124 / 182 68.1% 68.1%
To the legs 140 / 169 82.8% 81.1% 57 / 75 76.0% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1860.0% acc · 1.24/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
5451.9% acc · 4.77/15 · norm 1.17
5773.1% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
2360.5% def · norm 61.5%
32:0314.8% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
57:5234.1% of cage time · norm 16.5%
28:311:58 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
13:511:13 per 15 · norm 3:11
40.28/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
20.18/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Allen has more cage time on record.