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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Andy Ogle vs. Charles Oliveira

UFC 1-5-0 vs. 25-11-0 (1 NC)

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
1-5-0
UFC record
25-11-0 (1 NC)
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
37
AgeΔ 0 yrs
37
5'8"
HeightΔ 2"
5'10"
69"
ReachΔ 5"
74"
Orthodox1-4 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox18-9 vs orthodox fighters
141.3
Layoff (months)Δ 133.3 mo
8
LLLLW
Last 5 (newest first)
WWLWL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Charles Oliveira is a submission threat — 2.59 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.48 Lightweight norm.
Andy Ogle owns the mat — in control 51% of cage time, vs a 16% Featherweight norm.
Charles Oliveira owns the mat — in control 35% of cage time, vs a 19% Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Andy Ogle

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 15
Tier 3 — regional circuit 81

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.36 · 1 tier-1/2 wins · 5 finish wins over 15 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.5 wins over .500

Charles Oliveira

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 2511
Tier 3 — regional circuit 80

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.52 · 25 tier-1/2 wins · 28 finish wins over 45 documented bouts

In the UFC: 19-11 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.4 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1632.24/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
9543.23/min · norm 3.43
1622.23/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
9003.05/min · norm 3.37
44.9%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
55.6%norm 43.7%
50.3%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
49.0%norm 56.3%
10.21/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
80.41/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Andy Ogle

Distance 82.6% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 3.3% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 14.0% (norm 6.4%)

Charles Oliveira

Distance 69.9% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 13.5% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 16.6% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Andy Ogle

Head 75.8% (norm 77.5%) · Body 18.2% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 6.1% (norm 7.9%)

Charles Oliveira

Head 68.9% (norm 78.1%) · Body 20.8% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 10.3% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Ogle L/AAccFeatherweight med Oliveira L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 116 / 300 38.7% 40.7% 560 / 1199 46.7% 38.4%
In the clinch 8 / 12 too few to rate 70.5% 173 / 231 74.9% 67.5%
On the ground 39 / 51 76.5% 69.1% 221 / 285 77.5% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 99 / 275 36.0% 37.2% 565 / 1182 47.8% 35.3%
To the body 43 / 66 65.2% 68.4% 246 / 357 68.9% 69.2%
To the legs 21 / 22 too few to rate 80.7% 143 / 176 81.2% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Ogle L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Oliveira L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 126 / 282 44.7% 39.3% 615 / 1341 45.9% 38.9%
In the clinch 22 / 28 78.6% 70.3% 72 / 105 68.6% 68.6%
On the ground 14 / 16 too few to rate 69.5% 213 / 317 67.2% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 107 / 261 41.0% 35.9% 658 / 1421 46.3% 35.2%
To the body 38 / 45 84.4% 68.1% 168 / 240 70.0% 68.2%
To the legs 17 / 20 too few to rate 81.1% 74 / 102 72.5% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
726.9% acc · 1.44/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
4539.8% acc · 2.29/15 · norm 1.34
758.3% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
2854.9% def · norm 63.2%
36:5750.8% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
102:0334.6% of cage time · norm 19.0%
13:262:46 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
83:194:14 per 15 · norm 2:50
00.00/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
512.59/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Oliveira has more cage time on record.