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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Andre Fili vs. Michael Johnson

UFC 14-13-0 (1 NC) vs. 16-16-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
14-13-0 (1 NC)
UFC record
16-16-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
36
AgeΔ 4 yrs
40
5'11"
HeightΔ 1"
5'10"
74"
ReachΔ 1"
73"
Orthodox2-3 vs southpaws
Stance
Southpaw10-11 vs orthodox fighters
0.8
Layoff (months)Δ 7.2 mo
8
WLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
LWWWL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Michael Johnson carries real power — 0.53 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.
Andre Fili hunts takedowns — 2.19 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.
Michael Johnson rarely shoots — 0.57 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.34 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Andre Fili

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1313
Tier 3 — regional circuit 121

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.79 · 13 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 40 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.3 wins over .500

Michael Johnson

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1616
Tier 3 — regional circuit 84

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.54 · 16 tier-1/2 wins · 12 finish wins over 44 documented bouts

In the UFC: 11-11 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.3 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

11713.99/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
15684.27/min · norm 3.43
13464.58/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
13863.78/min · norm 3.37
38.1%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
39.6%norm 43.7%
49.7%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
58.8%norm 56.3%
70.36/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
130.53/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Andre Fili

Distance 92.0% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 3.6% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 4.4% (norm 6.4%)

Michael Johnson

Distance 93.5% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 4.0% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 2.5% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Andre Fili

Head 85.9% (norm 77.5%) · Body 8.5% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 5.6% (norm 7.9%)

Michael Johnson

Head 70.1% (norm 78.1%) · Body 21.9% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 8.0% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Fili L/AAccFeatherweight med Johnson L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1027 / 2825 36.4% 40.7% 1405 / 3703 37.9% 38.4%
In the clinch 65 / 110 59.1% 70.5% 101 / 157 64.3% 67.5%
On the ground 79 / 135 58.5% 69.1% 62 / 101 61.4% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 861 / 2637 32.7% 37.2% 829 / 2776 29.9% 35.3%
To the body 173 / 260 66.5% 68.4% 496 / 869 57.1% 69.2%
To the legs 137 / 173 79.2% 80.7% 243 / 316 76.9% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Fili L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Johnson L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1149 / 2366 48.6% 39.3% 1025 / 2854 35.9% 38.9%
In the clinch 79 / 124 63.7% 70.3% 96 / 140 68.6% 68.6%
On the ground 118 / 186 63.4% 69.5% 265 / 373 71.0% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 722 / 1882 38.4% 35.9% 923 / 2702 34.2% 35.2%
To the body 268 / 401 66.8% 68.1% 231 / 379 60.9% 68.2%
To the legs 356 / 393 90.6% 81.1% 232 / 286 81.1% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
4346.2% acc · 2.19/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
1438.9% acc · 0.57/15 · norm 1.34
5972.0% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
8681.1% def · norm 63.2%
43:2514.8% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
28:497.9% of cage time · norm 19.0%
44:302:16 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
61:252:30 per 15 · norm 2:50
40.20/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
10.04/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Johnson has more cage time on record.