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UFC simulation vs. the market Fight

Andre Fili vs. Max Holloway

UFC 14-13-0 (1 NC) vs. 24-9-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
14-13-0 (1 NC)
UFC record
24-9-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
36
AgeΔ 2 yrs
34
5'11"
HeightΔ 0"
5'11"
74"
ReachΔ 5"
69"
Orthodox10-8 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox19-6 vs orthodox fighters
0.9
Layoff (months)Δ 2.9 mo
3.8
WLLWL
Last 5 (newest first)
WLWLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Max Holloway outworks the Featherweight division — 6.92 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.52 norm.
Andre Fili hunts takedowns — 2.19 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.
Max Holloway rarely shoots — 0.22 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Andre Fili

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1313
Tier 3 — regional circuit 121

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.79 · 13 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 40 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.3 wins over .500

Max Holloway

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 249
Tier 3 — regional circuit 40

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.62 · 24 tier-1/2 wins · 15 finish wins over 37 documented bouts

In the UFC: 20-9 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.9 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

11713.99/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
36936.92/min · norm 3.52
13464.58/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
24574.60/min · norm 3.54
38.1%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
48.2%norm 44.8%
49.7%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
58.7%norm 54.8%
70.36/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
120.34/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Andre Fili

Distance 92.0% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 3.6% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 4.4% (norm 6.4%)

Max Holloway

Distance 92.2% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 4.2% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 3.5% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Andre Fili

Head 85.9% (norm 77.5%) · Body 8.5% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 5.6% (norm 7.9%)

Max Holloway

Head 77.4% (norm 77.5%) · Body 15.7% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 6.8% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Fili L/AAccFeatherweight med Holloway L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1027 / 2825 36.4% 40.7% 3252 / 7071 46.0% 40.7%
In the clinch 65 / 110 59.1% 70.5% 246 / 324 75.9% 70.5%
On the ground 79 / 135 58.5% 69.1% 195 / 271 72.0% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 861 / 2637 32.7% 37.2% 2389 / 5935 40.3% 37.2%
To the body 173 / 260 66.5% 68.4% 899 / 1207 74.5% 68.4%
To the legs 137 / 173 79.2% 80.7% 405 / 524 77.3% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Fili L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Holloway L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1149 / 2366 48.6% 39.3% 2264 / 5640 40.1% 39.3%
In the clinch 79 / 124 63.7% 70.3% 126 / 202 62.4% 70.3%
On the ground 118 / 186 63.4% 69.5% 67 / 103 65.0% 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 722 / 1882 38.4% 35.9% 1559 / 4642 33.6% 35.9%
To the body 268 / 401 66.8% 68.1% 346 / 618 56.0% 68.1%
To the legs 356 / 393 90.6% 81.1% 552 / 685 80.6% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
4346.2% acc · 2.19/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
853.3% acc · 0.22/15 · norm 1.17
5972.0% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
13681.4% def · norm 61.5%
43:2514.8% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
29:455.6% of cage time · norm 16.5%
44:302:16 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
61:201:43 per 15 · norm 3:11
40.20/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
100.28/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Holloway has more cage time on record.