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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Alistair Overeem vs. Alexander Volkov

UFC 12-8-0 vs. 15-5-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
12-8-0
UFC record
15-5-0
Heavyweight
Division (benchmark)
Heavyweight
46
AgeΔ 8 yrs
38
6'4"
HeightΔ 3"
6'7"
80"
ReachΔ 0"
80"
Orthodox9-8 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox10-5 vs orthodox fighters
68.9
Layoff (months)Δ 68.5 mo
0.4
LWWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
WWWLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Alistair Overeem carries real power — 0.81 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.29 Heavyweight norm.
Alistair Overeem is accurate with head shots — lands 65%, vs a 39% Heavyweight norm.
Alexander Volkov outworks the Heavyweight division — 5.07 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.28 norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Alistair Overeem

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 128
Tier 3 — regional circuit 3411

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.75 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 41 finish wins over 66 documented bouts

In the UFC: 10-6 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.8 wins over .500

Alexander Volkov

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 218
Tier 3 — regional circuit 193

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.34 · 21 tier-1/2 wins · 28 finish wins over 51 documented bouts

In the UFC: 13-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.2 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

7153.87/min · norm 3.28
Sig. strikes landed
13245.07/min · norm 3.28
5893.19/min · norm 3.19
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
8033.08/min · norm 3.19
74.3%norm 47.5%
Striking accuracy
57.1%norm 47.5%
51.1%norm 52.5%
Striking defense
53.8%norm 52.5%
100.81/15 · norm 0.29
Knockdowns
40.23/15 · norm 0.29

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Alistair Overeem

Distance 50.1% (norm 79.2%) · Clinch 17.3% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 32.6% (norm 9.3%)

Alexander Volkov

Distance 88.4% (norm 79.2%) · Clinch 6.8% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 4.8% (norm 9.3%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Alistair Overeem

Head 61.6% (norm 79.2%) · Body 27.2% (norm 11.5%) · Legs 11.1% (norm 7.6%)

Alexander Volkov

Head 70.5% (norm 79.2%) · Body 16.2% (norm 11.5%) · Legs 13.3% (norm 7.6%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Overeem L/AAccHeavyweight med Volkov L/AAccHeavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 314 / 482 65.1% 40.1% 1122 / 2049 54.8% 40.1%
In the clinch 144 / 166 86.7% 70.6% 112 / 158 70.9% 70.6%
On the ground 257 / 314 81.8% 70.2% 90 / 111 81.1% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 386 / 593 65.1% 39.0% 769 / 1634 47.1% 39.0%
To the body 231 / 262 88.2% 77.0% 294 / 375 78.4% 77.0%
To the legs 98 / 107 91.6% 87.8% 261 / 309 84.5% 87.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Heavyweight: 93 fighters · Heavyweight: 93 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Overeem L/AOpp accHeavyweight med vs Volkov L/AOpp accHeavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 357 / 887 40.2% 40.7% 642 / 1515 42.4% 40.7%
In the clinch 155 / 220 70.5% 70.6% 44 / 60 73.3% 70.6%
On the ground 77 / 98 78.6% 72.2% 117 / 162 72.2% 72.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 404 / 958 42.2% 39.3% 455 / 1265 36.0% 39.3%
To the body 126 / 166 75.9% 75.1% 160 / 240 66.7% 75.1%
To the legs 59 / 81 72.8% 84.4% 188 / 232 81.0% 84.4%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1034.5% acc · 0.81/15 · norm 0.90
Takedowns landed
1062.5% acc · 0.57/15 · norm 0.90
1263.2% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
7270.6% def · norm 63.2%
48:0926.1% of cage time · norm 17.2%
Control time
24:559.5% of cage time · norm 17.2%
18:531:31 per 15 · norm 2:28
Time under control lower is better
56:133:13 per 15 · norm 2:28
30.24/15 · norm 0.17
Submission attempts
30.17/15 · norm 0.17

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Overeem has more cage time on record.