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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Alexander Volkov vs. Stefan Struve

UFC 15-5-0 vs. 13-11-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
15-5-0
UFC record
13-11-0
Heavyweight
Division (benchmark)
Heavyweight
38
AgeΔ 0 yrs
38
6'7"
HeightΔ 4"
6'11"
80"
ReachΔ 4"
84"
Orthodox10-5 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox12-10 vs orthodox fighters
0.4
Layoff (months)Δ 72 mo
72.4
WWWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWLL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Stefan Struve is a submission threat — 1.68 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.17 Heavyweight norm.
Alexander Volkov outworks the Heavyweight division — 5.07 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.28 norm.
Stefan Struve rarely shoots — 0.56 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.90 Heavyweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Alexander Volkov

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 218
Tier 3 — regional circuit 193

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.34 · 21 tier-1/2 wins · 28 finish wins over 51 documented bouts

In the UFC: 13-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.2 wins over .500

Stefan Struve

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1311
Tier 3 — regional circuit 152

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.0 · 13 tier-1/2 wins · 25 finish wins over 41 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-7 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.1 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

13245.07/min · norm 3.28
Sig. strikes landed
5853.12/min · norm 3.28
8033.08/min · norm 3.19
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
7574.04/min · norm 3.19
57.1%norm 47.5%
Striking accuracy
47.4%norm 47.5%
53.8%norm 52.5%
Striking defense
46.5%norm 52.5%
40.23/15 · norm 0.29
Knockdowns
30.24/15 · norm 0.29

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Alexander Volkov

Distance 88.4% (norm 79.2%) · Clinch 6.8% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 4.8% (norm 9.3%)

Stefan Struve

Distance 88.0% (norm 79.2%) · Clinch 4.6% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 7.4% (norm 9.3%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Alexander Volkov

Head 70.5% (norm 79.2%) · Body 16.2% (norm 11.5%) · Legs 13.3% (norm 7.6%)

Stefan Struve

Head 71.3% (norm 79.2%) · Body 15.8% (norm 11.5%) · Legs 12.9% (norm 7.6%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Volkov L/AAccHeavyweight med Struve L/AAccHeavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1122 / 2049 54.8% 40.1% 489 / 1085 45.1% 40.1%
In the clinch 112 / 158 70.9% 70.6% 35 / 57 61.4% 70.6%
On the ground 90 / 111 81.1% 70.2% 61 / 91 67.0% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 769 / 1634 47.1% 39.0% 310 / 879 35.3% 39.0%
To the body 294 / 375 78.4% 77.0% 132 / 195 67.7% 77.0%
To the legs 261 / 309 84.5% 87.8% 143 / 159 89.9% 87.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Heavyweight: 93 fighters · Heavyweight: 93 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Volkov L/AOpp accHeavyweight med vs Struve L/AOpp accHeavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 642 / 1515 42.4% 40.7% 512 / 1016 50.4% 40.7%
In the clinch 44 / 60 73.3% 70.6% 75 / 118 63.6% 70.6%
On the ground 117 / 162 72.2% 72.2% 170 / 281 60.5% 72.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 455 / 1265 36.0% 39.3% 451 / 1024 44.0% 39.3%
To the body 160 / 240 66.7% 75.1% 157 / 205 76.6% 75.1%
To the legs 188 / 232 81.0% 84.4% 149 / 186 80.1% 84.4%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1062.5% acc · 0.57/15 · norm 0.90
Takedowns landed
746.7% acc · 0.56/15 · norm 0.90
7270.6% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
2955.8% def · norm 63.2%
24:559.5% of cage time · norm 17.2%
Control time
20:1410.8% of cage time · norm 17.2%
56:133:13 per 15 · norm 2:28
Time under control lower is better
63:395:05 per 15 · norm 2:28
30.17/15 · norm 0.17
Submission attempts
211.68/15 · norm 0.17

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Struve has more cage time on record.