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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Alexander Volkov vs. Greg Hardy

UFC 15-5-0 vs. 4-5-0 (1 NC)

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
15-5-0
UFC record
4-5-0 (1 NC)
Heavyweight
Division (benchmark)
Heavyweight
38
AgeΔ 0 yrs
38
6'7"
HeightΔ 2"
6'5"
80"
ReachΔ 0"
80"
Orthodox10-5 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox3-4 vs orthodox fighters
0.4
Layoff (months)Δ 55.6 mo
56
WWWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Greg Hardy rarely shoots — 0.20 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.90 Heavyweight norm.
Alexander Volkov outworks the Heavyweight division — 5.07 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.28 norm.
Greg Hardy outworks the Heavyweight division — 4.60 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.28 norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Alexander Volkov

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 218
Tier 3 — regional circuit 193

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.34 · 21 tier-1/2 wins · 28 finish wins over 51 documented bouts

In the UFC: 13-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.2 wins over .500

Greg Hardy

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 65
Tier 3 — regional circuit 31

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.82 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 7 finish wins over 16 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-4 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.8 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

13245.07/min · norm 3.28
Sig. strikes landed
3434.60/min · norm 3.28
8033.08/min · norm 3.19
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
2453.29/min · norm 3.19
57.1%norm 47.5%
Striking accuracy
49.9%norm 47.5%
53.8%norm 52.5%
Striking defense
55.1%norm 52.5%
40.23/15 · norm 0.29
Knockdowns
10.20/15 · norm 0.29

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Alexander Volkov

Distance 88.4% (norm 79.2%) · Clinch 6.8% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 4.8% (norm 9.3%)

Greg Hardy

Distance 84.4% (norm 79.2%) · Clinch 2.5% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 13.1% (norm 9.3%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Alexander Volkov

Head 70.5% (norm 79.2%) · Body 16.2% (norm 11.5%) · Legs 13.3% (norm 7.6%)

Greg Hardy

Head 73.5% (norm 79.2%) · Body 10.3% (norm 11.5%) · Legs 16.1% (norm 7.6%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Volkov L/AAccHeavyweight med Hardy L/AAccHeavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1122 / 2049 54.8% 40.1% 257 / 581 44.2% 40.1%
In the clinch 112 / 158 70.9% 70.6% 14 / 17 too few to rate 70.6%
On the ground 90 / 111 81.1% 70.2% 72 / 90 80.0% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 769 / 1634 47.1% 39.0% 203 / 506 40.1% 39.0%
To the body 294 / 375 78.4% 77.0% 51 / 71 71.8% 77.0%
To the legs 261 / 309 84.5% 87.8% 89 / 111 80.2% 87.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Heavyweight: 93 fighters · Heavyweight: 93 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Volkov L/AOpp accHeavyweight med vs Hardy L/AOpp accHeavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 642 / 1515 42.4% 40.7% 206 / 489 42.1% 40.7%
In the clinch 44 / 60 73.3% 70.6% 1 / 3 too few to rate 70.6%
On the ground 117 / 162 72.2% 72.2% 38 / 54 70.4% 72.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 455 / 1265 36.0% 39.3% 140 / 408 34.3% 39.3%
To the body 160 / 240 66.7% 75.1% 51 / 75 68.0% 75.1%
To the legs 188 / 232 81.0% 84.4% 54 / 63 85.7% 84.4%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1062.5% acc · 0.57/15 · norm 0.90
Takedowns landed
133.3% acc · 0.20/15 · norm 0.90
7270.6% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
964.3% def · norm 63.2%
24:559.5% of cage time · norm 17.2%
Control time
5:257.3% of cage time · norm 17.2%
56:133:13 per 15 · norm 2:28
Time under control lower is better
5:171:03 per 15 · norm 2:28
30.17/15 · norm 0.17
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.17

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Volkov has more cage time on record.