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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Alexander Volkov vs. Fabricio Werdum

UFC 15-5-0 vs. 12-6-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
15-5-0
UFC record
12-6-0
Heavyweight
Division (benchmark)
Heavyweight
38
AgeΔ 11 yrs
49
6'7"
HeightΔ 3"
6'4"
80"
ReachΔ 3"
77"
Orthodox10-5 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox11-6 vs orthodox fighters
0.4
Layoff (months)Δ 75 mo
75.4
WWWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
WLLWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Fabricio Werdum is a submission threat — 0.47 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.17 Heavyweight norm.
Fabricio Werdum's takedown defense leaks — 27% stopped, vs a 63% Heavyweight norm.
Alexander Volkov outworks the Heavyweight division — 5.07 sig. strikes landed per minute, vs a 3.28 norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Alexander Volkov

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 218
Tier 3 — regional circuit 193

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.34 · 21 tier-1/2 wins · 28 finish wins over 51 documented bouts

In the UFC: 13-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +4.2 wins over .500

Fabricio Werdum

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 126
Tier 3 — regional circuit 123

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.12 · 12 tier-1/2 wins · 18 finish wins over 35 documented bouts

In the UFC: 11-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +3.4 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

13245.07/min · norm 3.28
Sig. strikes landed
8904.60/min · norm 3.28
8033.08/min · norm 3.19
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
6283.25/min · norm 3.19
57.1%norm 47.5%
Striking accuracy
56.4%norm 47.5%
53.8%norm 52.5%
Striking defense
54.9%norm 52.5%
40.23/15 · norm 0.29
Knockdowns
40.31/15 · norm 0.29

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Alexander Volkov

Distance 88.4% (norm 79.2%) · Clinch 6.8% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 4.8% (norm 9.3%)

Fabricio Werdum

Distance 79.8% (norm 79.2%) · Clinch 9.8% (norm 9.8%) · Ground 10.4% (norm 9.3%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Alexander Volkov

Head 70.5% (norm 79.2%) · Body 16.2% (norm 11.5%) · Legs 13.3% (norm 7.6%)

Fabricio Werdum

Head 75.9% (norm 79.2%) · Body 13.6% (norm 11.5%) · Legs 10.4% (norm 7.6%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Volkov L/AAccHeavyweight med Werdum L/AAccHeavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1122 / 2049 54.8% 40.1% 673 / 1260 53.4% 40.1%
In the clinch 112 / 158 70.9% 70.6% 112 / 155 72.3% 70.6%
On the ground 90 / 111 81.1% 70.2% 105 / 164 64.0% 70.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 769 / 1634 47.1% 39.0% 568 / 1199 47.4% 39.0%
To the body 294 / 375 78.4% 77.0% 169 / 215 78.6% 77.0%
To the legs 261 / 309 84.5% 87.8% 153 / 165 92.7% 87.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Heavyweight: 93 fighters · Heavyweight: 93 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Volkov L/AOpp accHeavyweight med vs Werdum L/AOpp accHeavyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 642 / 1515 42.4% 40.7% 482 / 1199 40.2% 40.7%
In the clinch 44 / 60 73.3% 70.6% 97 / 140 69.3% 70.6%
On the ground 117 / 162 72.2% 72.2% 49 / 55 89.1% 72.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 455 / 1265 36.0% 39.3% 417 / 1107 37.7% 39.3%
To the body 160 / 240 66.7% 75.1% 82 / 115 71.3% 75.1%
To the legs 188 / 232 81.0% 84.4% 129 / 172 75.0% 84.4%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
1062.5% acc · 0.57/15 · norm 0.90
Takedowns landed
1628.6% acc · 1.24/15 · norm 0.90
7270.6% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
426.7% def · norm 63.2%
24:559.5% of cage time · norm 17.2%
Control time
36:0418.6% of cage time · norm 17.2%
56:133:13 per 15 · norm 2:28
Time under control lower is better
21:431:41 per 15 · norm 2:28
30.17/15 · norm 0.17
Submission attempts
60.47/15 · norm 0.17

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Volkov has more cage time on record.