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UFC simulation vs. the market Fight

Alexander Volkanovski vs. Diego Lopes

UFC 16-3-0 vs. 7-3-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
16-3-0
UFC record
7-3-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
38
AgeΔ 7 yrs
31
5'6"
HeightΔ 5"
5'11"
71"
ReachΔ 1"
72"
Orthodox14-1 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox4-3 vs orthodox fighters
0.4
Layoff (months)Δ 4.3 mo
4.7
WWWLL
Last 5 (newest first)
WLWLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Alexander Volkanovski has owned orthodox fighters — 14-1 in the UFC (2-2 vs everyone else), and Diego Lopes is orthodox.
Diego Lopes carries real power — 0.77 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.28 Featherweight norm.
Diego Lopes is a submission threat — 1.02 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.44 Featherweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Alexander Volkanovski

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 153
Tier 3 — regional circuit 131

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.55 · 15 tier-1/2 wins · 16 finish wins over 32 documented bouts

In the UFC: 13-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +6.6 wins over .500

Diego Lopes

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 64
Tier 3 — regional circuit 214

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.04 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 23 finish wins over 35 documented bouts

In the UFC: 7-3 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +5.7 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

18715.98/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
4623.94/min · norm 3.52
10433.33/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
5484.68/min · norm 3.54
56.9%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
47.0%norm 44.8%
58.2%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
47.2%norm 54.8%
60.29/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
60.77/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Alexander Volkanovski

Distance 80.8% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 6.6% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 12.6% (norm 6.4%)

Diego Lopes

Distance 79.1% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 4.9% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 16.0% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Alexander Volkanovski

Head 73.8% (norm 77.5%) · Body 8.7% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 17.6% (norm 7.9%)

Diego Lopes

Head 80.7% (norm 77.5%) · Body 9.8% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 9.6% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Volkanovski L/AAccFeatherweight med Lopes L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 1429 / 2657 53.8% 40.7% 320 / 777 41.2% 40.7%
In the clinch 157 / 216 72.7% 70.5% 34 / 48 70.8% 70.5%
On the ground 285 / 415 68.7% 69.1% 108 / 157 68.8% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 1228 / 2425 50.6% 37.2% 334 / 792 42.2% 37.2%
To the body 191 / 285 67.0% 68.4% 56 / 96 58.3% 68.4%
To the legs 452 / 578 78.2% 80.7% 72 / 94 76.6% 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Volkanovski L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Lopes L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 914 / 2333 39.2% 39.3% 456 / 927 49.2% 39.3%
In the clinch 103 / 135 76.3% 70.3% 27 / 33 81.8% 70.3%
On the ground 26 / 28 92.9% 69.5% 65 / 78 83.3% 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 632 / 1901 33.2% 35.9% 433 / 876 49.4% 35.9%
To the body 250 / 365 68.5% 68.1% 38 / 61 62.3% 68.1%
To the legs 161 / 230 70.0% 81.1% 77 / 101 76.2% 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
3434.3% acc · 1.63/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
746.7% acc · 0.90/15 · norm 1.17
3567.3% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
2374.2% def · norm 61.5%
61:3419.7% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
12:4810.9% of cage time · norm 16.5%
16:290:47 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
15:041:55 per 15 · norm 3:11
40.19/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
81.02/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Volkanovski has more cage time on record.