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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Alex Oliveira vs. Randy Brown

UFC 11-10-0 (1 NC) vs. 14-9-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
11-10-0 (1 NC)
UFC record
14-9-0
Welterweight
Division (benchmark)
Welterweight
38
AgeΔ 2 yrs
36
5'11"
HeightΔ 4"
6'3"
76"
ReachΔ 2"
78"
Orthodox7-9 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox11-7 vs orthodox fighters
56
Layoff (months)Δ 55.8 mo
0.2
LLLLW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLWL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Alex Oliveira hunts takedowns — 2.35 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.31 Welterweight norm.
Alex Oliveira owns the mat — in control 33% of cage time, vs a 18% Welterweight norm.
Randy Brown rarely shoots — 0.67 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.31 Welterweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Alex Oliveira

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 1110
Tier 3 — regional circuit 159

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.41 · 11 tier-1/2 wins · 21 finish wins over 48 documented bouts

In the UFC: 5-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.7 wins over .500

Randy Brown

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 148
Tier 3 — regional circuit 60

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.28 · 14 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 28 documented bouts

In the UFC: 10-8 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.9 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

6292.99/min · norm 3.17
Sig. strikes landed
10324.19/min · norm 3.17
5372.55/min · norm 3.08
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
8153.31/min · norm 3.08
51.1%norm 44.75%
Striking accuracy
47.0%norm 44.75%
46.7%norm 55.25%
Striking defense
53.0%norm 55.25%
60.43/15 · norm 0.38
Knockdowns
60.37/15 · norm 0.38

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Alex Oliveira

Distance 69.7% (norm 80.7%) · Clinch 17.0% (norm 9.6%) · Ground 13.3% (norm 8.1%)

Randy Brown

Distance 86.1% (norm 80.7%) · Clinch 8.7% (norm 9.6%) · Ground 5.2% (norm 8.1%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Alex Oliveira

Head 71.9% (norm 78.3%) · Body 17.7% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 10.4% (norm 8.0%)

Randy Brown

Head 76.2% (norm 78.3%) · Body 13.6% (norm 12.4%) · Legs 10.2% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Oliveira L/AAccWelterweight med Brown L/AAccWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 374 / 857 43.6% 38.5% 800 / 1890 42.3% 38.5%
In the clinch 142 / 209 67.9% 67.8% 154 / 190 81.1% 67.8%
On the ground 113 / 164 68.9% 67.0% 78 / 115 67.8% 67.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 356 / 884 40.3% 36.4% 636 / 1673 38.0% 36.4%
To the body 158 / 218 72.5% 70.7% 216 / 299 72.2% 70.7%
To the legs 115 / 128 89.8% 83.1% 180 / 223 80.7% 83.1%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Welterweight: 180 fighters · Welterweight: 180 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Oliveira L/AOpp accWelterweight med vs Brown L/AOpp accWelterweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 303 / 704 43.0% 39.1% 614 / 1447 42.4% 39.1%
In the clinch 108 / 141 76.6% 68.9% 106 / 143 74.1% 68.9%
On the ground 126 / 162 77.8% 68.0% 95 / 144 66.0% 68.0%
BY TARGET
To the head 328 / 737 44.5% 35.6% 322 / 1101 29.2% 35.6%
To the body 90 / 135 66.7% 69.6% 150 / 211 71.1% 69.6%
To the legs 119 / 135 88.1% 82.1% 343 / 422 81.3% 82.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
3338.4% acc · 2.35/15 · norm 1.31
Takedowns landed
1134.4% acc · 0.67/15 · norm 1.31
3063.8% def · norm 63.9%
Takedowns stopped
4771.2% def · norm 63.9%
69:2733.0% of cage time · norm 18.5%
Control time
36:4614.9% of cage time · norm 18.5%
52:553:46 per 15 · norm 3:15
Time under control lower is better
73:154:27 per 15 · norm 3:15
80.57/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
80.49/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Brown has more cage time on record.