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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Alessandro Costa vs. Cody Durden

UFC 5-3-0 vs. 8-9-1

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
5-3-0
UFC record
8-9-1
Flyweight
Division (benchmark)
Flyweight
30
AgeΔ 5 yrs
35
5'4"
HeightΔ 3"
5'7"
67"
ReachΔ 0"
67"
Orthodox1-0 vs southpaws
Stance
Southpaw5-7-1 vs orthodox fighters
3.8
Layoff (months)Δ 3.7 mo
0.1
WWWLW
Last 5 (newest first)
WLWLL

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Alessandro Costa carries real power — 0.85 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.18 Flyweight norm.
Cody Durden hunts takedowns — 3.99 per 15 minutes, vs a 1.30 Flyweight norm.
Cody Durden owns the mat — in control 37% of cage time, vs a 17% Flyweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Alessandro Costa

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 63
Tier 3 — regional circuit 112

Tier-weighted record quality: 1.16 · 6 tier-1/2 wins · 14 finish wins over 22 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.1 wins over .500

Cody Durden

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 79
Tier 3 — regional circuit 112

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.6 · 7 tier-1/2 wins · 12 finish wins over 30 documented bouts

In the UFC: 2-5 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +0.3 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

2773.94/min · norm 3.48
Sig. strikes landed
5873.19/min · norm 3.48
2683.81/min · norm 3.24
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
6733.66/min · norm 3.24
49.3%norm 44.6%
Striking accuracy
45.5%norm 44.6%
54.3%norm 56.4%
Striking defense
51.2%norm 56.4%
40.85/15 · norm 0.18
Knockdowns
10.08/15 · norm 0.18

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Alessandro Costa

Distance 84.3% (norm 85.1%) · Clinch 5.2% (norm 6.0%) · Ground 10.5% (norm 7.5%)

Cody Durden

Distance 88.8% (norm 85.1%) · Clinch 2.2% (norm 6.0%) · Ground 9.0% (norm 7.5%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Alessandro Costa

Head 72.4% (norm 75.9%) · Body 13.3% (norm 13.0%) · Legs 14.2% (norm 9.3%)

Cody Durden

Head 84.8% (norm 75.9%) · Body 7.4% (norm 13.0%) · Legs 7.8% (norm 9.3%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Costa L/AAccFlyweight med Durden L/AAccFlyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 209 / 474 44.1% 39.9% 481 / 1145 42.0% 39.9%
In the clinch 22 / 29 75.9% 70.1% 21 / 28 75.0% 70.1%
On the ground 46 / 59 78.0% 71.1% 85 / 116 73.3% 71.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 170 / 407 41.8% 37.6% 438 / 1093 40.1% 37.6%
To the body 52 / 75 69.3% 68.7% 69 / 95 72.6% 68.7%
To the legs 55 / 80 68.8% 79.7% 80 / 101 79.2% 79.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Flyweight: 73 fighters · Flyweight: 73 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Costa L/AOpp accFlyweight med vs Durden L/AOpp accFlyweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 209 / 511 40.9% 39.9% 560 / 1228 45.6% 39.9%
In the clinch 27 / 31 87.1% 68.8% 55 / 75 73.3% 68.8%
On the ground 32 / 45 71.1% 70.4% 58 / 76 76.3% 70.4%
BY TARGET
To the head 168 / 467 36.0% 35.4% 432 / 1030 41.9% 35.4%
To the body 61 / 80 76.2% 67.9% 123 / 199 61.8% 67.9%
To the legs 39 / 40 97.5% 79.7% 118 / 150 78.7% 79.7%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
426.7% acc · 0.85/15 · norm 1.30
Takedowns landed
4950.5% acc · 3.99/15 · norm 1.30
2385.2% def · norm 61.2%
Takedowns stopped
1356.5% def · norm 61.2%
6:359.4% of cage time · norm 17.0%
Control time
68:3437.3% of cage time · norm 17.0%
16:133:27 per 15 · norm 2:46
Time under control lower is better
27:262:14 per 15 · norm 2:46
40.85/15 · norm 0.58
Submission attempts
80.65/15 · norm 0.58

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Durden has more cage time on record.