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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Alberto Crane vs. Roger Huerta

UFC 0-2-0 vs. 6-2-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
0-2-0
UFC record
6-2-0
Lightweight
Division (benchmark)
Lightweight
50
AgeΔ 7 yrs
43
5'5"
HeightΔ 4"
5'9"
—
Reach
70"
Orthodox0-2 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox5-1 vs orthodox fighters
225.4
Layoff (months)Δ 19.8 mo
205.6
LL
Last 5 (newest first)
LLWWW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Roger Huerta has owned orthodox fighters — 5-1 in the UFC (1-1 vs everyone else), and Alberto Crane is orthodox.
Alberto Crane is a submission threat — 4.00 attempts per 15 minutes, vs a 0.48 Lightweight norm.
Alberto Crane carries real power — 0.80 knockdowns per 15 minutes, vs a 0.23 Lightweight norm.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Alberto Crane

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 02
Tier 3 — regional circuit 153

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.71 · 0 tier-1/2 wins · 14 finish wins over 20 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +2.0 wins over .500

Roger Huerta

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 912
Tier 3 — regional circuit 102

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.58 · 9 tier-1/2 wins · 13 finish wins over 35 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.2 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

80.43/min · norm 3.43
Sig. strikes landed
3333.64/min · norm 3.43
492.61/min · norm 3.37
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
2132.33/min · norm 3.37
25.0%norm 43.7%
Striking accuracy
36.6%norm 43.7%
57.4%norm 56.3%
Striking defense
56.6%norm 56.3%
10.80/15 · norm 0.23
Knockdowns
00.00/15 · norm 0.23

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Alberto Crane

Distance 100.0% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 0.0% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 0.0% (norm 8.0%)

Roger Huerta

Distance 62.1% (norm 83.0%) · Clinch 9.7% (norm 7.1%) · Ground 28.2% (norm 8.0%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Alberto Crane

Head 78.1% (norm 78.1%) · Body 12.5% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 9.4% (norm 8.0%)

Roger Huerta

Head 86.7% (norm 78.1%) · Body 8.2% (norm 12.8%) · Legs 5.0% (norm 8.0%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Crane L/AAccLightweight med Huerta L/AAccLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 8 / 32 25.0% 38.4% 148 / 566 26.1% 38.4%
In the clinch 0 / 0 too few to rate 67.5% 44 / 88 50.0% 67.5%
On the ground 0 / 0 too few to rate 69.1% 141 / 257 54.9% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 3 / 25 12.0% 35.3% 258 / 790 32.7% 35.3%
To the body 3 / 4 too few to rate 69.2% 43 / 75 57.3% 69.2%
To the legs 2 / 3 too few to rate 81.8% 32 / 46 69.6% 81.8%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Lightweight: 205 fighters · Lightweight: 205 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Crane L/AOpp accLightweight med vs Huerta L/AOpp accLightweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 19 / 52 36.5% 38.9% 135 / 368 36.7% 38.9%
In the clinch 1 / 2 too few to rate 68.6% 39 / 65 60.0% 68.6%
On the ground 29 / 61 47.5% 68.2% 39 / 58 67.2% 68.2%
BY TARGET
To the head 39 / 100 39.0% 35.2% 151 / 400 37.8% 35.2%
To the body 5 / 10 too few to rate 68.2% 41 / 60 68.3% 68.2%
To the legs 5 / 5 too few to rate 81.5% 21 / 31 67.7% 81.5%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
00.0% acc · 0.00/15 · norm 1.34
Takedowns landed
1346.4% acc · 2.13/15 · norm 1.34
150.0% def · norm 63.2%
Takedowns stopped
2052.6% def · norm 63.2%
4:2923.9% of cage time · norm 19.0%
Control time
33:5037.0% of cage time · norm 19.0%
8:296:47 per 15 · norm 2:50
Time under control lower is better
19:343:12 per 15 · norm 2:50
54.00/15 · norm 0.48
Submission attempts
30.49/15 · norm 0.48

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Huerta has more cage time on record.