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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator

Akira Corassani vs. Andy Ogle

UFC 3-3-0 vs. 1-5-0

Tale of the tape

Green = edge on that line
3-3-0
UFC record
1-5-0
Featherweight
Division (benchmark)
Featherweight
44
AgeΔ 7 yrs
37
5'8"
HeightΔ 0"
5'8"
68"
ReachΔ 1"
69"
Orthodox3-2 vs orthodox fighters
Stance
Orthodox1-4 vs orthodox fighters
141.3
Layoff (months)Δ 0 mo
141.3
LLLWW
Last 5 (newest first)
LLLLW

The read

Stats 25%+ off the division median
Andy Ogle owns the mat — in control 51% of cage time, vs a 16% Featherweight norm.
Akira Corassani rarely shoots — 0.70 takedowns per 15 minutes, vs a 1.17 Featherweight norm.
Akira Corassani absorbs 4.91 sig. strikes per minute, well above the 3.54 Featherweight norm — hittable.

Level of competition

Full-career record by tier of opposition

Akira Corassani

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 34
Tier 3 — regional circuit 92

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.41 · 3 tier-1/2 wins · 4 finish wins over 19 documented bouts

In the UFC: 1-2 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record +1.5 wins over .500

Andy Ogle

Competition tierWL
Tier 1 — UFC / DWCS / PFL / Bellator / ONE / Rizin 15
Tier 3 — regional circuit 81

Tier-weighted record quality: 0.36 · 1 tier-1/2 wins · 5 finish wins over 15 documented bouts

In the UFC: 0-1 against opponents who walked in above .500 · avg opponent walk-in record -0.5 wins over .500

Striking

Career totals · norms = own-division medians

Significant strikes — landed & absorbed

1393.25/min · norm 3.52
Sig. strikes landed
1632.24/min · norm 3.52
2104.91/min · norm 3.54
Sig. strikes absorbed lower is better
1622.23/min · norm 3.54
45.3%norm 44.8%
Striking accuracy
44.9%norm 44.8%
50.2%norm 54.8%
Striking defense
50.3%norm 54.8%
00.00/15 · norm 0.28
Knockdowns
10.21/15 · norm 0.28

Where the fight happens (share of sig. strike attempts)

Akira Corassani

Distance 90.9% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 9.1% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 0.0% (norm 6.4%)

Andy Ogle

Distance 82.6% (norm 85.9%) · Clinch 3.3% (norm 6.2%) · Ground 14.0% (norm 6.4%)

What they throw (share of sig. strike attempts by target)

Akira Corassani

Head 74.6% (norm 77.5%) · Body 12.7% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 12.7% (norm 7.9%)

Andy Ogle

Head 75.8% (norm 77.5%) · Body 18.2% (norm 12.9%) · Legs 6.1% (norm 7.9%)

Zone accuracy matrix Landed / attempted by zone

Green ≥ division median, red below. UFCStats tracks position and target as separate splits.

Zone Corassani L/AAccFeatherweight med Ogle L/AAccFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 121 / 279 43.4% 40.7% 116 / 300 38.7% 40.7%
In the clinch 18 / 28 64.3% 70.5% 8 / 12 too few to rate 70.5%
On the ground 0 / 0 too few to rate 69.1% 39 / 51 76.5% 69.1%
BY TARGET
To the head 80 / 229 34.9% 37.2% 99 / 275 36.0% 37.2%
To the body 28 / 39 71.8% 68.4% 43 / 66 65.2% 68.4%
To the legs 31 / 39 79.5% 80.7% 21 / 22 too few to rate 80.7%

Zones with fewer than 25 attempts are marked "too few to rate". Each fighter is measured against the median of leaderboard-eligible fighters in his own division (Featherweight: 129 fighters · Featherweight: 129 fighters).

What lands on them Opponents' accuracy against each man

Green ≤ division median — harder to hit than the typical man in his division.

Zone vs Corassani L/AOpp accFeatherweight med vs Ogle L/AOpp accFeatherweight med
BY POSITION
At distance 121 / 314 38.5% 39.3% 126 / 282 44.7% 39.3%
In the clinch 56 / 71 78.9% 70.3% 22 / 28 78.6% 70.3%
On the ground 33 / 37 89.2% 69.5% 14 / 16 too few to rate 69.5%
BY TARGET
To the head 138 / 328 42.1% 35.9% 107 / 261 41.0% 35.9%
To the body 43 / 61 70.5% 68.1% 38 / 45 84.4% 68.1%
To the legs 29 / 33 87.9% 81.1% 17 / 20 too few to rate 81.1%

Grappling

Takedowns, control, submissions vs. division norm
228.6% acc · 0.70/15 · norm 1.17
Takedowns landed
726.9% acc · 1.44/15 · norm 1.17
1386.7% def · norm 61.5%
Takedowns stopped
758.3% def · norm 61.5%
4:5411.5% of cage time · norm 16.5%
Control time
36:5750.8% of cage time · norm 16.5%
9:323:20 per 15 · norm 3:11
Time under control lower is better
13:262:46 per 15 · norm 3:11
00.00/15 · norm 0.44
Submission attempts
00.00/15 · norm 0.44

Bars compare the two men's rates (per-minute / per-15 figures), not raw totals — Corassani has more cage time on record.