Wellington Turman

He closes by naming Ko as the winner and calling it the simplest selection on the whole card, with no qualifier attached to the win itself.

A forward-moving, decent striker whose real asset is a submission-heavy grappling game against the cage, but who hasn't performed well or competed in a very long stretch.

He rules out any route for the opponent ("don't really see a path") and closes on a flat, decisive pick for Dulatov.

A fighter the analyst hadn't seen compete in a long time, graded a decent striker with decent power who comes forward, and a good grappler with a good cage push, cage takedowns and a good submission arsenal. No specific weakness was voiced beyond the overall gap the analyst sees against Dulatov.

Analyst states outright this is "the least confident pick" he has made, going so far as to say he is "really not confident" in it -- an explicit hedge on the win itself, not on method or round, so coinflip rather than lean.

Wellington Turman is picked on an improvement trend rather than a settled skill edge. The analyst's own framing is that Turman's striking is still developing but has shown gains fight over fight, including his most recent bout, while his jiu-jitsu is the more finished weapon. He explicitly says he tried to talk himself into the underdog instead and could not quite do it.

Calls it 'pretty cut and dry' and names Brown to get this one done with no hedge on the win.

Wellington Turman's good BJJ (sweeps, top pressure) is his main asset; his striking is only serviceable/decent by the analyst's own generous admission. He has not had much recent success at middleweight and is moving down to welterweight, where he gives up a large size and reach disadvantage against Brown.

Named plainly in the 'both'-tagged segs 15-17 as a 'small shot' on a sizable underdog. Capped from a higher grade by his own qualifier on bet size, not by any doubt about who he's naming. Re-audited at pick level: no mistag found.

Has slick, high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu (cited arm-bar finish) that poses a threat even off his back, plus solid cage/clinch grappling. His striking is the acknowledged weak point, described as not good, though the analyst reads him as still improving in the UFC overall.