Vinicius Oliveira

Hedged close: picks him "more often than not", not outright.

Moving up a weight class after a clear bantamweight loss, he's brought in as a dynamic, heavy-kicking, powerful striker whose low hands are the one clear hole in his defense. His grappling is called solid too: decent takedowns paired with nasty ground and pound and a good submission arsenal, giving him a finishing dimension on the mat that the fight could turn on.

calls him the rightful favorite

As of 2026-02-01 his unorthodox, awkward rhythm on the feet makes him difficult to read, and he carries real pop along with a nasty low kick. He fights with his hands down, which helps his takedown defense but leaves his face more open. The analyst still calls him the more dangerous striker in this matchup. His grappling is good too: decent takedowns, a heavy ground-and-pound output, plus a pretty good submission arsenal, though the analyst thinks the game plan here is to stand and strike rather than lean on that.

He uses the word 'lean' himself, cites Oliveira's momentum off a big recent win, but also flags 'a little value' on Phillips and calls it a close fight.

A power-heavy striker who mixes clean kicks across all three levels into a varied, dynamic attack; the analyst's one concern is that he fights with his hands kept low, even though it hasn't cost him yet. His grappling is good too, with vicious ground and pound, a real submission arsenal, and takedowns he can call on when he chooses to.

Repeats, several times, how hard this fight is to call or wager on, but still gives a concrete decision-based reason (expects Nurmagomedov to get a judges' nod in a razor-thin contest) rather than leaving it as a bare shrug -- the heavy hedging pulls this below clear, but a real reasoning path keeps it above coinflip.

Good striker with a lot of power ('can put you to sleep') and a dynamic attack, including dangerous kicks to all levels led by a deadly leg kick; keeps his hands low, which both enables wild-angle power and exposes him to return fire. Good grappler with vicious ground and pound and a slick submission arsenal.

States the win plainly ('bank at least two rounds...we're going Ricky Simone'); only hedge is on how much the leg kicks might wear him down, a risk note, not a win hedge.

A live-power striker with kicks to every level, especially a nasty leg kick, but technique that gets odd and wild the longer a fight goes, worsened by a low-hands habit. Decent grappling as a change-up: vicious ground-and-pound and a real submission arsenal if the fight lands on the mat. Analyst calls him the better pure striker in this matchup but expects Simon's wrestling to be the deciding factor.