Tucker Lutz

Explicit 'not a ton of confidence'; picks the underdog because he is torn between both men.

A boxing-first MMA striker who leans on good combinations and decent power rather than kicks, with a powerful wrestling game as his real path to victory. Can smother Baghdasaryan with takedowns and top control for a decision.

He gives Lutz the striking edge and -- if the fight goes past round one -- the grappling edge too, on the stated grounds that Pineda's cardio gives out; this technical read is given plainly with no hedge on the win itself (only a round-based qualifier on when the edge applies, which per the confidence-bar rule does not demote).

A good striker who throws combinations with pop on his shots, and a good wrestler with powerful takedowns and top control, though the board marks him weak off his back. The analyst's stated, independent case for Lutz is a striking edge plus a grappling edge once Pineda's cardio fades past the first round.