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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Welterweight · “Nomad”

Shavkat Rakhmonov

19-0-0 UFC 7-0-0
Smothering Control Finisher Sniper Accuracy
6'1"Height
77"Reach
OrthodoxStance
32Age
1KO wins
5Sub wins
85.7%Finish rate
10:44Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Above avg, rated 76 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking solid · Dec 2024 · stats read 49 → nudged -6 inside the band · claims striking power +1, striking technique +1, kicking +1 (+4) Accuracy — Strong, rated 92 of 100 · claims striking technique +1 (+2) Striking D — Average, rated 55 of 100 · claims striking defense -1 (-3) Durability — Above avg, rated 81 of 100 · 138 MMA tag chin: durable · Dec 2024 · stats read 83 → nudged +3 inside the band · claims chin +2 (+4) Wrestling — Above avg, rated 71 of 100 · 138 MMA whiteboard: wrestling solid · Feb 2023 · stats read 61 → nudged -6 inside the band · claims td offense -1, clinch +1 (-1) TD Defense — Above avg, rated 83 of 100 · 138 MMA whiteboard: wrestling solid (no takedown-defence tag), half-weighted with the stats read 86 · claims getup +1 (+2) Grappling — Above avg, rated 83 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling solid · Dec 2024 · stats read 84 → nudged +2 inside the band · claims sub offense +1, ground and pound +2 (+4) Control — Elite, rated 97 of 100 · claims top control +1, ground and pound +2 (+7) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking solid
2 analyst reads graded this phase
  • solid UFC 310 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · December 3, 2024 watch ↗
  • solid UFC 296 Full Card Breakdown, Prediction, & Analysis · December 12, 2023 watch ↗
grappling solid
1 analyst read graded this phase
  • solid UFC 310 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · December 3, 2024 watch ↗
wrestling solid whiteboard
1 analyst read graded this phase
  • solid UFC 285 Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, And Prediction · February 28, 2023 · whiteboard watch ↗
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking solid 2 reads
grappling solid 1 read
wrestling solid 1 read · whiteboard
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Durability, Wrestling, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Striking D, TD Defense, Control.

Built on 75 minutes of tracked cage time across 7 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Smothering Control 50% of every fight spent in control position
Finisher 86% of wins by knockout or submission (1 KO, 5 sub)
Sniper Accuracy 60% of significant strikes land
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min3.25
Sig. strikes absorbed / min2.17
Striking accuracy60.1%
Striking defense51.3%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.2
Takedowns / 15 min1.4
Takedown accuracy25.9%
Takedown defense85.7%
Sub attempts / 15 min1.2
Control time49.6%
Record vs .500+ opponents7-0

Insider info

3 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Ian Machado Garry clear UFC 310 Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · December 3, 2024
strikingsolid grapplingsolid

States plainly 'I do think shovot wins,' with his only hedge aimed at the betting price/number, not the outcome itself.

Solid striker with real power, kicks to all levels including legitimate spin kicks, and strong combination work; rated super durable. Dangerous in the clinch with knees and elbows plus good trips and throws. Solid grappling with submission attacks and good scrambling, though his own takedowns from open space are rated below elite -- he relies more on the clinch to get there.

Strengthpower kicking/combinations
Strengthclinch offense (knees/elbows/trips)
Strengthsubmission grappling and scrambles
Strengthdurability
Weaknessopen-mat takedowns not top-tier
chin · durable
vs Stephen Thompson lean UFC 296 Full Card Breakdown, Prediction, & Analysis · December 12, 2023 · 1 read since
strikingsolid

considered betting the opposite

Our paraphrase: Rakhmonov is a solid (his word, landing there after briefly saying 'very good') striker with real power, dynamic kicks to all levels and good combinations, though he's somewhat hittable at times -- notably in the Jeff Neil fight, where he dropped his hands exchanging and got outstruck before finishing on the ground. He also has a good clinch game (devastating knees/elbows, good throws and trips) and attacks submissions once the fight is on the mat, and the analyst calls him good everywhere.

Strengthsolid power striking with dynamic, varied kicks
Strengthgood clinch game: knees, elbows, throws/trips into the mat
Strengthgood scrambling and submission attacks on the ground
Weaknesssomewhat hittable; has dropped his hands exchanging before
vs Geoff Neal lean UFC 285 Full Card Breakdown, Analysis, And Prediction · February 28, 2023 · 2 reads since

leans this side, but calls the matchup tighter than the market implies

An accurate, intent-driven striker (explicitly not framed as a pure power-puncher) who hunts the body before finishing upstairs, backed by solid wrestling with good top pressure and pinpoint ground-and-pound, quick to jump on a choke. Coming off a dominant win over a durable veteran.

Strengthaccurate striking, every strike thrown with finishing intent, favors the body before the head
Strengthsolid wrestling, good top pressure
Strengthpinpoint ground-and-pound, quick to finish with a choke
Strengthcoming off a dominant win over a tough veteran

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 7 fights · green = win
October 24, 2020 vs Alex Oliveira — 2.79/min (W) — only 4.7 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Oct '20 June 26, 2021 vs Michel Prazeres — 2.93/min (W) Jun '21 February 5, 2022 vs Carlston Harris — 3.12/min (W) — only 4.2 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Feb '22 June 25, 2022 vs Neil Magny — 1.91/min (W) Jun '22 March 4, 2023 vs Geoff Neal — 7.91/min (W) Mar '23 December 16, 2023 vs Stephen Thompson — 2.82/min (W) Dec '23 December 7, 2024 vs Ian Machado Garry — 1.48/min (W) Dec '24

Fight history

7 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
W Ian Machado Garry 15-0 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R5 5:00 — UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · December 7, 2024
37/67Sig. strikes
42/84Absorbed
2/10Takedowns
11:41Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Stephen Thompson 17-6-1 walk-in Submission · R2 4:56 — UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · December 16, 2023
28/36Sig. strikes
16/25Absorbed
1/5Takedowns
7:45Control
0Knockdowns
2Sub attempts
W Geoff Neal 15-4 walk-in Submission · R3 4:17 — UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · March 4, 2023
113/179Sig. strikes
69/145Absorbed
0/4Takedowns
3:43Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Neil Magny 26-8 walk-in Submission · R2 4:58 — UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · June 25, 2022
19/36Sig. strikes
11/22Absorbed
2/2Takedowns
9:06Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Carlston Harris 17-4 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 4:10 — UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · February 5, 2022
13/28Sig. strikes
10/27Absorbed
1/3Takedowns
0:52Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Michel Prazeres 26-3 walk-in Submission · R2 2:10 — UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · June 26, 2021
21/35Sig. strikes
6/14Absorbed
1/1Takedowns
3:25Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Alex Oliveira 22-8-1 walk-in Submission · R1 4:40 — UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · October 24, 2020
13/25Sig. strikes
9/18Absorbed
0/2Takedowns
0:44Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

Full pro career (Wikipedia, results only)
19-0-0Pro record
DAR Pro Team, Kill Cliff FC (2021–present)Gym / team

Wins by method

KO/TKO 8
Submission 10
Decision 1
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 0
Submission 0
Decision 0
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 7
M-1 Challenge 7
Kazakhstan MMA Federation 5
Full career — 19 fights, every organization
OpponentMethodEventOrg RdTime
W Ian Machado Garry Decision (unanimous) UFC 310
December 7, 2024
UFC 5 5:00
W Stephen Thompson Submission (rear-naked choke) UFC 296
December 16, 2023
UFC 2 4:56
W Geoff Neal Submission (rear-naked choke) UFC 285
March 4, 2023
UFC 3 4:17
W Neil Magny Submission (guillotine choke) UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot
June 25, 2022
UFC 2 4:58
W Carlston Harris KO (spinning hook kick and punches) UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland
February 5, 2022
UFC 1 4:10
W Michel Prazeres Submission (rear-naked choke) UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov
June 26, 2021
UFC 2 2:10
W Alex Oliveira Submission (guillotine choke) UFC 254
October 24, 2020
UFC 1 4:40
W Tiago Varejão TKO (punches) M-1 Challenge 102
June 28, 2019
M-1 Challenge 1 4:50
W Daniil Prikaza TKO (punches) M-1 Challenge 101
March 30, 2019
M-1 Challenge 2 2:20
W Rinat Sayakbaev TKO (retirement) Kazakhstan MMA Federation: Battle of Nomads 11
December 8, 2018
Kazakhstan MMA Federation 1 5:00
W Faridun Odilov TKO (punches) Kazakhstan MMA Federation: Battle of Nomads 10
May 12, 2018
Kazakhstan MMA Federation 3 3:03
W Levan Solodovnik Submission (triangle choke) M-1 Challenge 87
February 9, 2018
M-1 Challenge 2 4:42
W Park Jun-yong Submission (rear-naked choke) Kazakhstan MMA Federation: Battle of Nomads 9
August 7, 2016
Kazakhstan MMA Federation 2 1:51
W Marcelo Brito KO (punch to the body) M-1 Challenge 67
June 4, 2016
M-1 Challenge 1 1:37
W Adil Boranbayev Submission (rear-naked choke) Kazakhstan MMA Federation: Battle of Nomads 7
April 30, 2016
Kazakhstan MMA Federation 2 4:51
W Michał Wiencek Submission (guillotine choke) M-1 Challenge 59
July 3, 2015
M-1 Challenge 1 0:49
W Bartosz Chyrek KO (punches) M-1 Challenge 57
May 2, 2015
M-1 Challenge 1 2:51
W Marcus Vinicios TKO (punches) Kazakhstan MMA Federation: Battle of Nomads 2
November 30, 2014
Kazakhstan MMA Federation 1 4:58
W Adam Tsurov Submission (triangle choke) M-1 Challenge 52
October 17, 2014
M-1 Challenge 1 3:56

Career history from the fighter's Wikipedia record table (Shavkat Rakhmonov) — results only, no strike stats; UFC bouts are marked and carry full stats in the fight history above.

Division context

vs. 189 qualified Welterweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 3.2 avg 3.4
Strikes absorbed /min 2.2 avg 3.3
Striking accuracy 60.1% avg 45.1%
Striking defense 51.3% avg 55.2%
Takedowns /15 min 1.4 avg 1.5
Takedown accuracy 25.9% avg 40.2%
Takedown defense 85.7% avg 62.6%
Sub attempts /15 min 1.2 avg 0.6
Control time 49.6% avg 21.5%
Finish rate 85.7% avg 53.9%

Headshot of Shavkat Rakhmonov by SPORTS UZ · CC BY 3.0 · Wikimedia Commons · cropped and resized

Hero photo of Shavkat Rakhmonov by Ruslankyrykbayev · CC0 · Wikimedia Commons · resized