Sergio Pettis

He points to Mix's physical tools and specifically credits improved conditioning compared to a past fight where he faded late, as the reasoning behind a confident pick.

Mix holds a real physical edge in height and reach that's only partly offset by Pettis's unusually long arms for his size. His path to victory runs through elite grappling -- a favored body-lock takedown, the ability to chain wrestling attempts, and one of the best guillotine chokes in the promotion set up from multiple positions -- with his still-developing, single-shot-heavy striking mainly there to keep opponents honest thanks to a long front kick and knee. Pettis is regarded as the better pure striker, a patient counter-puncher with real power for the weight class who has come back from adversity before, and he's also an active, submission-hunting grappler off his back, though his takedown defense is a clear soft spot. Citing better conditioning than in some past outings, the analyst backs Mix to execute his grappling-heavy game plan and win the title.