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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Santiago Luna
Bantamweight · “BorderBoy”

Santiago Luna

8-1-0 UFC 2-1-0
Striker Durable
5'9"Height
74"Reach
OrthodoxStance
22Age
1KO wins
0Sub wins
50.0%Finish rate
10:53Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Above avg, rated 78 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking solid · May 2026 · stats read 62 → nudged -5 inside the band · claims striking power +2, striking technique +3, pressure +2 (+6) Accuracy — Average, rated 68 of 100 · claims striking technique +3 (+6) Striking D — Average, rated 62 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Durability — Above avg, rated 75 of 100 · 138 MMA tag chin: durable · May 2026 · stats read 62 → nudged -3 inside the band · claims chin +2 (+4) Wrestling — Average, rated 48 of 100 · claims td offense +3, clinch +1 (+7) TD Defense — Average, rated 47 of 100 · claims getup +1 (+2) Grappling — Above avg, rated 75 of 100 · 138 MMA: grappling solid · May 2026 · stats read 45 → nudged -6 inside the band · claims sub offense +1, ground and pound +2 (+4) Control — Average, rated 54 of 100 · claims top control +1, ground and pound +2 (+7) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking solid
3 analyst reads graded this phase
  • solid UFC Fight Night Muhammad vs Bonfim Full Card Preview & Predictions · May 30, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Moreno vs Kavanagh Full Card Preview & Predictions · February 22, 2026 watch ↗
  • good UFC Fight Night Lopes vs Silva Full Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · September 9, 2025 watch ↗
grappling solid
3 analyst reads graded this phase
  • solid UFC Fight Night Muhammad vs Bonfim Full Card Preview & Predictions · May 30, 2026 watch ↗
  • solid UFC Fight Night Moreno vs Kavanagh Full Card Preview & Predictions · February 22, 2026 watch ↗
  • solid UFC Fight Night Lopes vs Silva Full Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · September 9, 2025 watch ↗
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking solid 3 reads
grappling solid 3 reads
wrestling not yet read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Durability, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, Wrestling, TD Defense, Control · stats alone on Striking D.

Built on 32 minutes of tracked cage time across 3 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Striker above avg striking — rates 78 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking solid · May 2026
Durable above avg durability — rates 75 of 100 · 138 MMA tag chin: durable · May 2026
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min4.74
Sig. strikes absorbed / min2.76
Striking accuracy53.1%
Striking defense68.0%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.92
Takedowns / 15 min2.3
Takedown accuracy71.4%
Takedown defense57.1%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.92
Control time16.5%
Record vs .500+ opponents0-1

Insider info

3 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Bryce Mitchell lean UFC Fight Night Muhammad vs Bonfim Full Card Preview & Predictions · May 30, 2026
strikingsolid grapplingsolid

He says "I'm going to take" Mitchell "for now" and adds he "could be swayed" (quotes kept under five words each) -- a real mechanism (chained jiu-jitsu) paired with an open invitation to change the pick.

An undefeated prospect whose striking has looked strong against the opposition he's faced to date -- real forward pressure, power, combination work, a high guard, toughness and a good attack to the body -- but that opposition sits well below this step up. His grappling runs on a repeatable wrestling formula: take the back from standing and pull opponents to the floor, push them to the cage, and return them there again and again behind heavy ground-and-pound. He takes this fight on short notice against a far more seasoned opponent.

Strengthsolid, pressuring striker against his level of competition so far
Strengthgood body attack
Strengthdurable
Strengthrepeatable, effective wrestling-based takedown and mat-return game
Strengthgood ground-and-pound
Weaknessuntested against meaningfully better competition
Weaknesstaking a big step up on short notice
chin · durablecompetition quality · untested
vs Angel Pacheco clear UFC Fight Night Moreno vs Kavanagh Full Card Preview & Predictions · February 22, 2026 · 1 read since
strikinggood grapplingsolid

States directly that this is the better fighter's spot to win and settles on him as the pick. Pacheco's only route is explicitly named (a late, come-from-behind win) and then dismissed as unlikely.

Undefeated with few visible flaws by the analyst's own account. Good striking with very good forward pressure, real power, good combinations, and durability. His solid grappling is a genuine strength: really good takedowns, a signature sequence of taking the back standing and dragging opponents to the mat, repeated mat returns off a cage push, and grinding ground and pound that wears opponents down over a fight.

Strengthvery good forward pressure
Strengthpower
Strengthgood combinations
Strengthdurable
Strengthreally good takedowns
Strengthsignature standing back-take into a mat drag
Strengthcage push into repeated mat returns
Strengthgrinding ground and pound
chin · durable
vs Quang Le emphatic UFC Fight Night Lopes vs Silva Full Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · September 9, 2025 · 2 reads since
strikinggood grapplingsolid

No hedge anywhere in the chapter: repeated unqualified statements of genuine enthusiasm for Luna, an explicit claim that the betting number undervalues him, and a direct, final declaration naming him as the selection. Stacked, unqualified conviction language throughout.

An undefeated (6-0) young prospect with Olympic-caliber wrestling. A good, powerful striker who comes forward, throws combinations, and can eat a shot to give one back; durable by his own repeated statement. A solid grappler: real takedowns, a distinctive standing back-take that drags opponents straight to the mat, good cage push with repeated mat returns, and good ground and pound. Takedown defense is explicitly called 'solid' -- a word the vocabulary has no slot for.

StrengthOlympic-caliber wrestling
Strengthgood power and combinations
Strengthdurable -- willing to absorb a shot in order to land one back
Strengthstanding back-take that drags opponents down
Strengthgood cage push with repeated mat returns
Strengthgood ground and pound
Weaknesswillingness to trade rather than avoid damage is flagged as a possible long-term durability concern, though he is still young
chin · durable

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 3 fights · green = win
September 13, 2025 vs Quang Le — 5.36/min (W) — only 2.8 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Sep '25 February 28, 2026 vs Angel Pacheco — 8.73/min (W) Feb '26 June 6, 2026 vs Bryce Mitchell — 0.61/min (L) Jun '26

Fight history

3 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Bryce Mitchell 18-3 walk-in Submission · R3 4:52 — UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · June 6, 2026
9/25Sig. strikes
22/41Absorbed
0/1Takedowns
1:14Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Angel Pacheco 0-1 walk-in Decision - Unanimous · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · February 28, 2026
131/227Sig. strikes
56/216Absorbed
5/5Takedowns
3:23Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Quang Le 1-2 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 2:48 — Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · September 13, 2025
15/40Sig. strikes
12/24Absorbed
0/1Takedowns
0:47Control
2Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

Full pro career (Wikipedia, results only)
8-1-0Pro record
Entram GymGym / team

Wins by method

KO/TKO 3
Submission 4
Decision 1
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 0
Submission 1
Decision 0
Other 0

Fights by organization

UWC Mexico 4
UFC 3
Tuff-N-Uff 1
Lights Out Xtreme Fighting 1
Full career — 9 fights, every organization
OpponentMethodEventOrg RdTime
L Bryce Mitchell Submission (arm-triangle choke) UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim
June 6, 2026
UFC 3 4:52
W Angel Pacheco Decision (unanimous) UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
February 28, 2026
UFC 3 5:00
W Quang Le KO (punch) UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva
September 13, 2025
UFC 1 2:48
W Desmond Manabat KO (punch) Tuff-N-Uff 144
May 22, 2025
Tuff-N-Uff 1 2:45
W Magomed Bayduev Submission (rear-naked choke) Lights Out Xtreme Fighting 19
September 6, 2024
Lights Out Xtreme Fighting 3 4:41
W Josimar Cuevas TKO (punches) UWC Mexico 52
April 7, 2024
UWC Mexico 1 3:17
W Emilio Galindo Submission (rear-naked choke) UWC Mexico 49
October 27, 2023
UWC Mexico 1 2:43
W Luis Gerardo Aguillón Submission (rear-naked choke) UWC Mexico 46
July 23, 2023
UWC Mexico 2 4:34
W Einar González Submission (rear-naked choke) UWC Mexico 43
April 28, 2023
UWC Mexico 1 2:56

Career history from the fighter's Wikipedia record table (Santiago Luna (fighter)) — results only, no strike stats; UFC bouts are marked and carry full stats in the fight history above.

Division context

vs. 124 qualified Bantamweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 4.7 avg 3.7
Strikes absorbed /min 2.8 avg 3.6
Striking accuracy 53.1% avg 44.0%
Striking defense 68.0% avg 56.4%
Takedowns /15 min 2.3 avg 1.6
Takedown accuracy 71.4% avg 36.9%
Takedown defense 57.1% avg 62.8%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.9 avg 0.5
Control time 16.5% avg 19.4%
Finish rate 50.0% avg 48.2%

Headshot of Santiago Luna by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized