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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Ryan Loder
Middleweight · “Man of Steel”

Ryan Loder

1-2-0
Wrestler Submission Grappler Suspect Chin
6'2"Height
76"Reach
SouthpawStance
35Age
1KO wins
0Sub wins
100.0%Finish rate
3:39Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Below avg, rated 44 of 100 · 138 MMA: striking decent · Nov 2025 · stats read 44 → nudged +2 inside the band · claims striking technique +1, kicking +1, pressure +1 (+3) Accuracy — Average, rated 49 of 100 · claims striking technique +1 (+2) Striking D — Average, rated 47 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Durability — Below avg, rated 26 of 100 · 138 MMA tag chin: suspect · Nov 2025 · stats read 3 → nudged -8 inside the band · claims chin -2 (-4) Wrestling — Above avg, rated 77 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling solid · Apr 2025 · stats read 42 → nudged -6 inside the band · claims td offense +3 (+6) TD Defense — Average, rated 62 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling solid (no takedown-defence tag), half-weighted with the stats read 47 Grappling — Above avg, rated 73 of 100 · 138 MMA whiteboard: grappling solid · Nov 2025 · stats read 45 → nudged -6 inside the band · claims ground and pound +2 (+2) Control — Average, rated 54 of 100 · claims top control +1, ground and pound +2 (+7) Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking decent
3 analyst reads graded this phase
  • decent UFC Fight Night Tsarukyan vs Hooker Analysis, Breakdown and Predictions · November 18, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · April 29, 2025 watch ↗
  • decent UFC Fight Night Cannonier vs Borralho Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 22, 2024 watch ↗
grappling solid whiteboard
1 analyst read graded this phase
  • solid UFC Fight Night Tsarukyan vs Hooker Analysis, Breakdown and Predictions · November 18, 2025 · whiteboard watch ↗
wrestling solid
2 analyst reads graded this phase
  • solid UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · April 29, 2025 watch ↗
  • solid UFC Fight Night Cannonier vs Borralho Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 22, 2024 watch ↗
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking decent 3 reads
grappling solid 1 read · whiteboard
wrestling solid 2 reads
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Striking, Durability, Wrestling, Grappling · his tags and claims adjust Accuracy, TD Defense, Control · stats alone on Striking D.

Built on 10 minutes of tracked cage time across 3 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Wrestler above avg wrestling — rates 77 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling solid · Apr 2025
Submission Grappler above avg grappling — rates 73 of 100 · 138 MMA whiteboard: grappling solid · Nov 2025
Suspect Chin 138 MMA · Nov 2025 tags chin: suspect
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min5.1
Sig. strikes absorbed / min2.46
Striking accuracy69.1%
Striking defense50.0%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.0
Takedowns / 15 min1.37
Takedown accuracy14.3%
Takedown defense100.0%
Sub attempts / 15 min1.37
Control time45.2%
Record vs .500+ opponents0-1

Insider info

3 analyst reads · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Ismail Naurdiev lean UFC Fight Night Tsarukyan vs Hooker Analysis, Breakdown and Predictions · November 18, 2025
strikingdecent wrestlingsolid

Commits plainly ("I'm taking the underdog") with a real mechanism (outgrapple, better cardio), but concedes a real finish path for the opponent -- a potential knockout given Naurdiev's power and Loder's tested chin -- and closes the pick with a loose "but who knows?" -- a qualifier that lands on the win itself, not just method.

As of 2025-11-18, a decent striker whose own takedown threat is said to open up his striking, with a pretty good body kick; he is fine on the feet but not the clear advantage there. The analyst argues -- against conventional expectation -- that Loder is actually the better wrestler in this matchup: good takedowns, good entries, he chains and mixes his takedown styles, works wrestling early and often as a game plan, and has good control with heavy ground and pound on top.

Strengthforward pressure opens his striking via takedown threat
Strengthpretty good body kick
Strengthgood takedowns and entries
Strengthchains and mixes takedown styles
Strengthgood top control
Strengthheavy ground and pound
Weaknesshis chin was found in his last fight, giving the opponent a real knockout path
chin · suspect
vs Azamat Bekoev emphatic UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · April 29, 2025 · 1 read since
strikingdecent wrestlingsolid

He states flatly that he believes Loder wins, repeats the call a further two times, and his only self-doubt is about contradicting the betting markets -- never about the fight itself.

Decent striker whose real weapon is a good body kick, with forward pressure and a takedown threat that sets up his boxing combinations. His wrestling is the centerpiece: solid, very good takedowns with clean, crisp entries that he sticks with or chains through multiple attempts, pretty good control once he lands them, and heavy ground-and-pound. The analyst outright picks him as a sizable underdog on the strength of that wrestling path and expected pace.

Strengthgood body kick
Strengthforward pressure that sets up boxing combinations via the takedown threat
Strengthvery good, clean takedown entries
Strengthsticks to and chains takedown attempts
Strengthheavy ground-and-pound, outworks opponents on the mat
vs Robert Valentin clear UFC Fight Night Cannonier vs Borralho Full Card Analysis, Prediction & Breakdown · August 22, 2024 · 2 reads since
strikingdecent wrestlingsolid

Direct, repeated statement committing to Loder, who he expects to control the fight and win the majority of the rounds -- with a clear mechanism (pressure wrestling against a documented pressure weakness); the note that Loder is a big market underdog is framed as a price/line observation, not a hedge on the pick.

A 6-1 fighter (one loss, a split decision) the analyst calls a solid wrestler with good takedown entries, chain-wrestling ability and good control, plus heavy ground-and-pound once he gets there. His striking is only decent, built around forward pressure and the threat of his wrestling, with a decent body kick he can throw without much fear of being taken down himself. The analyst expects him to control most of the fight and do real damage despite being a heavy market underdog.

Strengthsolid wrestling: good entries, chain-wrestles well, good control, heavy ground-and-pound
Strengthdecent, pressure-based striking backed by the wrestling threat
Strengtha notable regional win (dominant performance)

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 3 fights · green = win
August 24, 2024 vs Robert Valentin — 6.16/min (W) Aug '24 May 3, 2025 vs Azamat Bekoev — 4.76/min (L) — only 2.7 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought May '25 November 22, 2025 vs Ismail Naurdiev — 0.7/min (L) — only 1.4 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Nov '25

Fight history

3 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Ismail Naurdiev 24-8 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 1:26 — UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · November 22, 2025
1/4Sig. strikes
3/6Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Azamat Bekoev 17-3 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 2:44 — UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 3, 2025
13/25Sig. strikes
23/46Absorbed
0/4Takedowns
0:13Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Robert Valentin 0-0 walk-in TITLE KO/TKO · R2 1:49 — UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · August 24, 2024
42/52Sig. strikes
1/2Absorbed
1/3Takedowns
4:45Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

UFC bouts in this database
1-2-0UFC record

Wins by method

KO/TKO 1
Submission 0
Decision 0
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 2
Submission 0
Decision 0
Other 0

Fights by organization

UFC 3

Showing UFC fights only — this fighter's full pre-UFC career hasn't been synced yet. It will fill in as the weekly career backfill reaches them.

Division context

vs. 168 qualified Middleweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 5.1 avg 3.3
Strikes absorbed /min 2.5 avg 3.3
Striking accuracy 69.1% avg 47.0%
Striking defense 50.0% avg 53.4%
Takedowns /15 min 1.4 avg 1.6
Takedown accuracy 14.3% avg 40.4%
Takedown defense 100.0% avg 61.3%
Sub attempts /15 min 1.4 avg 0.7
Control time 45.2% avg 21.6%
Finish rate 100.0% avg 60.8%

Headshot of Ryan Loder by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized