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UFC simulation vs. the market Bout Simulator
Magomed Mustafaev
Lightweight · “The Sniper”

Magomed Mustafaev

11-3-0 UFC 3-2-0
Precision Striker Positional Grappler Taken Down Often
5'8"Height
71"Reach
OrthodoxStance
38Age
3KO wins
0Sub wins
100.0%Finish rate
7:15Avg fight

Skill profile

Rated 0–100 · where 138 MMA has read him, his grades and tags set each axis and the stats only nudge inside his band · stats alone where he is silent · the rim is reserved for specialists
Striking — Average, rated 47 of 100 · tag ko power: good (+3) · claims striking power +2 (+4) Accuracy — Average, rated 64 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Striking D — Below avg, rated 31 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Durability — Average, rated 51 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Wrestling — Average, rated 61 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling good · Oct 2022 · stats read 64 → nudged +2 inside the band · claims td offense +1 (+2) TD Defense — Below avg, rated 31 of 100 · 138 MMA: wrestling good (no takedown-defence tag), half-weighted with the stats read 4 Grappling — Average, rated 45 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Control — Average, rated 64 of 100 · stats only — nothing in his reads bears on this axis Striking Accuracy Striking D Durability Wrestling TD Defense Grappling Control
striking not yet read
grappling not yet read
wrestling good
1 analyst read graded this phase
  • good UFC 280: Full Card Analysis, Preview, & Prediction · October 18, 2022 watch ↗
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read
striking not yet read
grappling not yet read
wrestling good 1 read
cardio not yet read
durability not yet read

138 MMA anchors Wrestling · his tags and claims adjust Striking, TD Defense · stats alone on Accuracy, Striking D, Durability, Grappling, Control.

Built on 36 minutes of tracked cage time across 5 statted fights — every axis is held down until there is more tape, so read this as a sketch rather than a verdict.

Precision Striker average accuracy — rates 64 of 100 among UFC veterans
Positional Grappler average control — rates 64 of 100 among UFC veterans
Taken Down Often put on his back 10 times · 4.1 per 15 min
Career rates — the raw numbers behind the chart
Sig. strikes landed / min2.59
Sig. strikes absorbed / min2.68
Striking accuracy58.8%
Striking defense41.2%
Knockdowns / 15 min0.83
Takedowns / 15 min3.31
Takedown accuracy50.0%
Takedown defense23.1%
Sub attempts / 15 min0.41
Control time26.5%
Record vs .500+ opponents1-2

Insider info

1 analyst read · 138 MMA · our paraphrase, never his words
vs Yamato Nishikawa clear UFC 280: Full Card Analysis, Preview, & Prediction · October 18, 2022
wrestlinggood

He says he is 'pretty sure' of the outcome, separately flagging that Mustafaev makes a poor parlay anchor given how steep his price is -- a wager caution, not a hedge on the winner.

An experienced fighter with wins over legitimate competition who the analyst rates as a genuinely damaging striker, not just a hard hitter but one who causes real cuts and damage, plus decent-to-good wrestling. He is the clear pick, though the analyst won't use him as a heavy parlay anchor given the short price.

StrengthWealth of experience and a strong track record against legitimate competition
StrengthGenuinely damaging, cut-causing power on the feet
StrengthDecent-to-good wrestling
ko power · good

Striking trend

Sig. strikes/min, last 5 fights · green = win
June 20, 2015 vs Piotr Hallmann — 2.14/min (W) Jun '15 December 12, 2015 vs Joe Proctor — 9.47/min (W) — only 1.9 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Dec '15 November 19, 2016 vs Kevin Lee — 2.1/min (L) Nov '16 April 20, 2019 vs Rafael Fiziev — 6.98/min (W) — only 1.4 min of tape, so this rate reflects how fast the fight ended more than how he fought Apr '19 February 22, 2020 vs Brad Riddell — 1.87/min (L) Feb '20

Fight history

5 UFC bouts · newest first · opponent records as of fight night
L Brad Riddell 7-1 walk-in Decision - Split · R3 5:00 — UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker · February 22, 2020
28/46Sig. strikes
38/72Absorbed
8/11Takedowns
7:00Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Rafael Fiziev 6-0 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 1:26 — UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · April 20, 2019
10/12Sig. strikes
1/1Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:03Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
L Kevin Lee 13-2 walk-in Submission · R2 4:31 — UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · November 19, 2016
20/34Sig. strikes
20/28Absorbed
0/2Takedowns
1:01Control
0Knockdowns
1Sub attempts
W Joe Proctor 11-3 walk-in KO/TKO · R1 1:54 — UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor · December 12, 2015
18/27Sig. strikes
9/13Absorbed
0/0Takedowns
0:06Control
1Knockdowns
0Sub attempts
W Piotr Hallmann 15-3 walk-in TKO - Doctor's Stoppage · R2 3:24 — UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs Penne · June 20, 2015
18/41Sig. strikes
29/51Absorbed
0/3Takedowns
1:27Control
0Knockdowns
0Sub attempts

Walk-in records count UFC bouts in this database. For the pre-UFC career, see the record breakdown below or the Tapology button up top.

Record breakdown

Full pro career (Wikipedia, results only)
11-3-0Pro record
Sochi Star Club, Berkut Fight Club, American Top TeamGym / team

Wins by method

KO/TKO 8
Submission 3
Decision 0
Other 0

Losses by method

KO/TKO 0
Submission 2
Decision 1
Other 0

Fights by organization

Legion Fight 7
UFC 5
Sochi Star Club 1
M-1 Challenge 1
Full career — 14 fights, every organization
OpponentMethodEventOrg RdTime
L Brad Riddell Decision (split) UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker
February 23, 2020
UFC 3 5:00
W Rafael Fiziev TKO (spinning back kick and punches) UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik
April 20, 2019
UFC 1 1:26
L Kevin Lee Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2
November 19, 2016
UFC 2 4:31
W Joe Proctor TKO (knees and punches) UFC 194
December 12, 2015
UFC 1 1:54
W Piotr Hallmann TKO (doctor stoppage) UFC Fight Night: Jędrzejczyk vs. Penne
June 20, 2015
UFC 2 3:24
W Abubakar Nurmagomedov TKO (doctor stoppage) Sochi Star Club: Sochi Star Tournament 1
September 1, 2014
Sochi Star Club 1 4:11
W Andrei Koshkin Verbal Submission (heel hook) M-1 Challenge 46
March 14, 2014
M-1 Challenge 2 0:39
W Lom-Ali Nalgiev Submission (rear-naked choke) Legion Fight 18
December 26, 2013
Legion Fight 2 2:45
W Guseyn Omarov TKO (doctor stoppage) Legion Fight 17
November 28, 2013
Legion Fight 2 1:39
W Islam Begidov KO (punches) Legion Fight 15
September 15, 2013
Legion Fight 1 1:55
W Vadim Ogar Submission (triangle choke) Legion Fight 12
January 16, 2013
Legion Fight 1 1:15
W Sakhil Askarov TKO (corner stoppage) Legion Fight 10
March 10, 2012
Legion Fight 2 2:20
L Arsen Ubaidulaev Submission (rear-naked choke) Legion Fight 9
July 8, 2011
Legion Fight 2 3:20
W Marat Medzhidov TKO (punches) Legion Fight 7
April 29, 2011
Legion Fight 1 4:55

Career history from the fighter's Wikipedia record table (Magomed Mustafaev) — results only, no strike stats; UFC bouts are marked and carry full stats in the fight history above.

Division context

vs. 195 qualified Lightweight fighters · tick = division mean
Striking volume /min 2.6 avg 3.5
Strikes absorbed /min 2.7 avg 3.6
Striking accuracy 58.8% avg 44.0%
Striking defense 41.2% avg 55.7%
Takedowns /15 min 3.3 avg 1.6
Takedown accuracy 50.0% avg 38.1%
Takedown defense 23.1% avg 61.1%
Sub attempts /15 min 0.4 avg 0.6
Control time 26.5% avg 21.3%
Finish rate 100.0% avg 50.7%

Headshot of Magomed Mustafaev by UFC · Official UFC athlete photo (copyright UFC; not freely licensed) · Wikimedia Commons · flattened onto dark background, cropped/resized